The Hammer Monday Week 13/14 - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 13
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

1.) Fly Eagles Fly? Or Eagles Crashing Down?

A week ago, the Eagles were still showing up near the top of most power rankings. The justification was straightforward: the defense looked like a top-3 unit post-bye, and the offense, while inconsistent, supposedly had another gear to reach. After Week 13, that optimism looks misplaced.

Before the bye, the Eagles appeared to be pulling out of their slump:
 

• 38 points vs a bad Giants defense
• 28 points at Minnesota

Jalen Hurts hit explosives, but the underlying efficiency was shaky — Philly posted just a 39% success rate vs the Vikings and couldn’t run the ball. They briefly leaned into more under-center play-action and six-offensive-linemen sets, and then all of that creativity evaporated.

Since the bye, the offense has put up: 10, 16, 21, and 15 points.

On the season:

• 15th in EPA/play
• 23rd in success rate

Remove Hurts’ QB runs (including tush push), and the run game falls apart:

• 25th in EPA/rush
• 25th in success rate

For comparison, last season they were 4th and 22nd. Saquon Barkley alone added explosive stability with 46 runs of 10+ yards and 17 of 20+. This year’s run game gives them nothing.

The downstream effect:

• Philadelphia has the second-longest average distance on 3rd down (7.81 yards), trailing only Cleveland.
• Jalen Hurts is not a QB you want in constant straight dropback situations. Right now he’s playing like a bottom-tier quarterback.
• OC Kevin Patullo isn’t offering solutions — no run explosives, no structure, no hinted adjustment.

And even defensively, there are real questions.
 

• The Cowboys moved the ball easily two weeks ago.
• On Thanksgiving, the Bears imposed their will on the ground in windy conditions.

Leaning on your defense only works when the offense isn’t hapless. The Eagles offense right now is hapless.

It might be time to drop the Eagles significantly in power rankings.

2.) Quick Hitters

The Cardinals were better than the Bucs.

Arizona actually outplayed Tampa Bay in most meaningful ways, winning the first-down battle 22–13 and outgaining them 386 to 279. A tipped Jacoby Brissett interception at the Bucs’ nine-yard line and a missed 43-yard field goal kept the game from going to overtime. Tampa Bay continues to look like a perfectly average offense and nothing more.

The Cowboys might surge — but the path is brutal.

Dallas is playing some of its best football of the season. Prescott is sharp, and the Lamb–Pickens duo is turning into one of the league’s most dangerous pairings. The defense looks revived with healthier bodies. But the postseason path remains frustratingly narrow: either reel in Philadelphia for the division — still a two-game gap — or finish ahead of three NFC North teams in the Wild Card race. Even if Dallas goes on a legitimate run, it still might not be enough.

The Broncos remain inexplicable.

Denver has now won nine straight games, trailing at some point in every one — an NFL record. Their last four wins have come by a combined ten points, and eight of their ten victories this season are one-score games. Yet the underlying team play remains deeply flawed: the quarterback is not good, they can’t run the ball when trying to close games, and their defense was just lit up by Marcus Mariota. They’re 10–3, but it’s still impossible to know who — or what — this team really is.

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 14

Rob:
Nothing

Clive:
Miami/NY Jets Under 41.5 (-105)

Both:
Dallas +3 (-105) vs. Detroit
Pittsburgh/Baltimore Under 45.5 (-120)
Seattle/Atlanta Under 44.5 (-120)
Denver/Las Vegas Under 41.5 (-115)
Houston +4.5 (-120) vs. Kansas City
Philadelphia/LA Chargers Under 41.5 (-115)

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 14 Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 14
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Left Game), DT Walter Nolen (Injured Inactive), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Injured Inactive), CB Max Melton (Injured Inactive), RB Emari Demercado (Injured Inactive), RB Trey Benson (Working back from I.R.) 
Atlanta - WR Drake London (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - CB Nate Wiggins (Left Game)
Buffalo - OT Spencer Brown (Injured Inactive), OT Dion Dawkins (Injured Inactive), TE Dalton Kincaid (Injured Inactive), WR Josh Palmer (Injured Inactive), LB Terrel Bernard (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joey Bosa (Left Game)
Carolina (Bye Week) - CB Jaycee Horn (Injured Inactive), LB Christian Rozeboom (Injured Inactive), LB Claudin Cherelus (Injured Inactive), C Cade Mays (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - LB T.J. Edwards (Injured Inactive), LB Noah Sewell (Injured Inactive), LB Ruben Hyppolite II (Injured Inactive), EDGE Dominique Robinson (Injured Inactive), CB Tyrique Stevenson (Injured Inactive), DT Andrew Billings (Left Game)
Cincinnati - WR Tee Higgins (Injured Inactive), EDGE Trey Hendrickson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Cam Sample (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - EDGE Alex Wright (Injured Inactive), EDGE Adin Huntington (Injured Inactive), DT Maliek Collins (Left Game), OT Jack Conklin (Left Game), RB Dylan Sampson (Left Game)
Dallas - OT Tyler Guyton (Injured Inactive), CB DaRon Bland (Left Game), CB Caelen Carson (Injured Inactive), CB Trevon Diggs (Working back from I.R.)
Denver - EDGE Jonah Elliss (Injured Inactive), DT D.J. Jones (Left Game)
Detroit - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (Left Game), WR Kalif Raymond (Injured Inactive), C Graham Glasgow (Injured Inactive), TE Brock Wright (Injured Inactive), S Kerby Joseph (Injured Inactive)
Green Bay - EDGE Lukas Van Ness (Injured Inactive), DT Karl Brooks (Injured Inactive), CB Nate Hobbs (Injured Inactive), LB Quay Walker (Injured Inactive), WR Matthew Golden (Injured Inactive), WR Savion Williams (Injured Inactive), WR Jayden Reed (Working back from I.R)
Houston - RB Woody Marks (Banged Up)
Indianapolis - CB Sauce Gardner (Weeks)
Jacksonville - WR Parker Washington (Left Game), OT Walker Little (Left Game), OG Patrick Mekari (Injured Inactive), OG Chuma Edoga (Injured Inactive), EDGE Travon Walker (Injured Inactive), DT Arik Armstead (Injured Inactive), TE Hunter Long (Injured Inactive), S Eric Murray (Working back from I.R.)
Kansas City - OT Josh Simmons (Left Game), OT Jawaan Taylor (Left Game), OG Trey Smith (Injured Inactive), TE Noah Gray (Injured Inactive), CB Chris Roland-Wallace (Injured Inactive), S Bryan Cook (Left Game)
Las Vegas - C/G Jordan Meredith (Injured Inactive), TE Michael Mayer (Injured Inactive), WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. (Left Game), WR Jack Bech (Left Game)
L.A Chargers - QB Justin Herbert (Surgery), RB Omarion Hampton (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Rams - RB Kyren Williams (Banged Up)
Miami - FB Alec Ingold
Minnesota - QB J.J. McCarthy (Injured Inactive), OT Christian Darrisaw (Injured Inactive), OG Donovan Jackson (Injured Inactive), C Ryan Kelly (Left Game), RB Aaron Jones (Left Game), S Theo Jackson (Injured Inactive)
New England (Bye Week) - TBD (Playing Tonight)
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Injured Inactive), S Justin Reid (Left Game)
New York Giants (Bye Week) - TBD (Playing Tonight)
New York Jets - CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Injured Inactive), S Tony Adams (Left Game)
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive)
Pittsburgh - DT Derrick Harmon (Injured Inactive), LB Patrick Queen (Left Game), CB James Pierre (Left Game)
San Francisco (Bye Week) - EDGE  Sam Okuayinonu (Injured Inactive), LB Tatum Bethune (Injured Inactive), K Eddy Pineiro (Injured Inactive), FB Kyle Juszczyk (Banged Up), OG Ben Bartch (Left Game)
Seattle - OG Anthony Bradford (Left Game), CB Josh Jobe (Left Game)
Tampa Bay - CB Benjamin Morrison (Injured Inactive)
Tennessee - C Lloyd Cushenberry III (Injured Inactive), CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (Injured Inactive), S Amani Hooker (Banged Up)
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Injured Inactive), WR Noah Brown (Working back from I.R.)

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) The NHL standings on American Thanksgiving have typically been a solid predictor for the end of the season. By this point teams have played just shy of 30% of their schedule, and we have a decent indication of how good they are. Since the lockout in 2005, a little over 75% of playoff teams were sitting in a playoff spot at American Thanksgiving. As of Thursday, the playoff teams according to points percentage (not total points, as it benefits teams who have played more games to this point) were:

Tampa, Ottawa, Boston, Carolina, New Jersey, Washington, Pittsburgh, Montreal
Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Anaheim, Vegas, Seattle, Los Angeles, Utah

History tells us four of these teams won’t make the playoffs. The four likeliest to miss, in my opinion, in order: Seattle, Pittsburgh, Boston, Utah.

Four teams who made the second round of the playoffs last year currently find themselves on the outside looking in, including the Stanley Cup finalists from the last two seasons: Florida, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto. Of these four, I’d still be shocked if Florida and Edmonton missed. I can’t say the same for Winnipeg or Toronto, who need to get it together in a hurry.

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2.) It’s time to worry about the Rangers. I’ve been quick to praise them despite a rocky start to the season, because at the end of the day the underlying numbers have been strong. At one point or another you have to turn those good efforts into results though, and they haven’t been able to do that consistently enough. And it’s just gone from bad to worse, with Adam Fox getting injured over the weekend and put on LTIR as he’s set to miss several weeks.

I don’t see how the Rangers survive without him. Fox leads the team in points, time of ice, expected goal share at five-on-five, and Corsi percentage at five-on-five. When you factor in special teams, his lead grows across the board. His 62.27 xGF% and 61.31 CF% in all situations leads all Rangers defensemen by a mile. Next up is Urho Vaakanainen at 50.25 xGF% and 51.54 CF%. That should come as a terrifying warning for Rangers fans.

While his absence will be felt across the board, Fox is irreplaceable on the power play. Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Fox is sixth in the NHL among all defensemen in points and fourth in PP TOI% (a player’s percentage of team power-play time, per game). He’s averaging 3:06 of PP TOI per game this season. The next closest Rangers defenseman is Braden Schneider at 0:37. Fox is the only defenseman on the team this season with a power-play point (he has eight).

The Rangers are as top heavy as any group in the league, especially on the back end where the depth chart thins out in a hurry. The next man up on the right side is Will Borgen, who is averaging 18:41 TOI/G this season. His career high is 17:35 – fitting for a bottom-pair defenseman. It’s not a knock on Borgen, who has been good in his role, but he simply does not have the ability to step up and play top-pairing minutes against the opposition’s best forwards. When the Rangers lost Fox for 10 games in 2023 they had the depth to absorb it. No longer is that the case. I don’t see how, in Fox’s absence, they don’t dig a hole too big to climb out of upon his return.

By the way, the Rangers’ next four games? Dallas, at Ottawa, Colorado, Vegas. Sheesh.

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3.) The top four players in the NHL in on-ice even-strength goal differential all play for the same team. Yeah, you already know who. The top four, in order, are: Nathan MacKinnon (+31), Cale Makar (+29), Artturi Lehkonen (+26), and Martin Necas (+25). Devon Toews (+19) is seventh, Sam Malinski (+15) is tied for 12th, and Josh Manson (+14) and Brock Nelson (+14) are tied for 17th. It speaks to just how dominant this Avalanche team has been. They are head and shoulders above the rest of the league right now, on pace for an NHL-record 138 points. They have a plus-48 goal differential through just 25 games – only three teams managed better across a full 82 games last season. Everything checks out under the hood, too, as they lead the league in just about every important metric. This is dominance to a degree we have not seen a long time in this league. I have as much respect for Nathan MacKinnon and Gabe Landeskog as any players in this league and I would love to see them win the second Cup they’ve been chasing. Provided this team stays healthy, I don’t see how anyone beats them in a seven-game series.

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4.) Sticking with on-ice even-strength goal differential, joining the Avalanche in their dominance atop the leaderboard are the Capitals. Washington has four players in the top 10, sandwiched between Colorado’s guys: Jakob Chychrun (+20, t-5th), Aliaksei Protas (+20, t-5th), Matt Roy (+17, 8th), and Tom Wilson (+16, t-9th). Dylan Strome (+15) is tied for 12th. I was worried for the Capitals when Pierre-Luc Dubois got hurt, but they are 9-4-2 since and have won seven of their last eight. Chychrun has been the catalyst for them during this winning run, with 16 points in 15 games in November, including six goals in the team’s last six games. He’s always flashed this potential, but seems to have finally put it all together now in his second season under Spencer Carberry. A little over a week ago he was 250-1 to win the Norris. He’s 30-1 now and would for sure be top-three in voting if the season ended today. Vibes are immaculate right now in Washington and people seem to be sleeping on this team once again.

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5.) While we’re on the topic of insane runs, I have to glaze the Lightning a bit more. They just won their seventh-straight game on Saturday to move into first place in the Atlantic at 16-7-2, after starting the season 1-4-2. For those who struggle at math, that’s a 15-3 record over their last 18 games. Even more impressive is they’re doing it without key pieces of their roster. Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh have missed all of their current seven-game win streak, Erik Cernak played in just one of those games, and Brayden Point has missed the last four-and-a-half. They’re even 2-0 without Andrei Vasilevskiy. The whole team has stepped up in light of the injuries, but the two that stand out are Brandon Hagel and JJ Moser. I touched on the emergence of Moser in this column last month, and he’s continued to be great for them since. Meanwhile, Hagel has eight goals and 12 points in his last five games.

The Lightning are just -160 to win the Atlantic this season (shop around) and that is… mispriced. Bet it. I don’t think any other team in the division finishes within 10 points of them.

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6.) New injuries this week:

Lukas Dostal, ANA (2-3 weeks); Petr Mrazek, ANA (left Sunday’s game, awaiting update); David Pastrnak, BOS (day-to-day, missed both weekend games, not practicing Monday morning); Kirill Marchenko, CBJ (day-to-day); Mathieu Olivier, CBJ (day-to-day); Jack Roslovic, EDM (“a couple of weeks”); Kasperi Kapanen, EDM (“several weeks”); Warren Foegele, LAK (day-to-day); Jonathan Marchessault, NSH (day-to-day); Evgenii Dadonov, NJD (out “for a period of time”); Kyle Palmieri, NYI (6-8 months); Adam Fox, NYR (week-to-week); Jaden Schwartz, SEA (six weeks); Jimmy Snuggerud, STL (minimum six weeks); Alexey Toropchenko, STL (week-to-week); Logan Cooley, UTA (day-to-day); Olli Maatta, UTA (placed on IR, timeline unclear).

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