The Stanley Cup contender Philadelphia Flyers visit Sunrise, FL, tonight to take on the rebuilding Florida Panthers in their home opener. Okay, while that's an overreaction, it's been an excellent 3-0 start for the Flyers, but they're still a terrible team, so let's not get too excited, Jawns.
The Panthers opened their season with three road games against solid opponents and return home with a 2-1 record, which is not too shabby. Offseason trade acquisition Matt Tkachuk is tied for the team lead with 4-points - already living up to his star status. Below we'll break down to see if the Flyers will ruin the home opener for the roughly 5,000 Panthers fans that will presumably be in attendance tonight.
The Flyers will be on the second leg of a back-to-back after inexplicably erasing a 2-0 deficit last night in a comeback road victory against the slow-starting Tampa Bay Lightning. It was a bit of déjà vu after they mounted a similar comeback victory last weekend at home against the Vancouver Canucks. The latter couldn't hold a lead against the St. Catharines Royal Henley Retirement Community team with the way they're running, so maybe we'll throw that one out the window.
Still, they're a resilient bunch who play hard under head coach John Tortorella, so it's not shocking to see them battling each night. However, the analytics unmask who this team really is.
Per Evolving-Hockey, the Flyers rank 30th in both Corsi For percentage (CF%) with a putrid 38.26 mark and an abysmal 39.6% Expected Goal Percentage (xGF%). To keep the theme, they also rank 30th with a 3.49 Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGF/60), meaning serious regression is due.
Much of their success can be attributed to the stellar play of goaltender Carter Hart. Hart has been sensational, recording 4.3 Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) to pair with a .943 SV%.
The bad news is that Hart played last night, so we'll see backup Felix Sandstrom, who is mediocre at best. All this points to a strong performance from a much more talented Panthers team.
The Panthers won the President's Trophy last season with a league-best 122-points, and although they shipped out stars Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar, they're still a formidable bunch led by Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov. Through three games, they've been slightly above average in CF% and xGF% but registered middling defensive numbers.
The defense will likely be an issue throughout the season, especially with the announcement today that defenseman Aaron Ekblad was put on long-term IR - but they will be able to manage this evening against the offensively inept Flyers. The Panthers will also have the advantage in goal, with Sergei Bobrovsky giving them another edge.
Due to the Panthers being an overwhelming favorite, we can play this game from a few different angles. With the Flyers playing tired, we can expect the Panthers to start hot, especially coming off a loss, so I'll be playing the first-period moneyline. Additionally, the Flyers have a weak penalty killing unit, surrendering three power play goals to date. With Ekblad out, it's being reported at morning skate that Barkov is running the power play up top.
Barkov is the team's best player and is off to a slow start, but there's no better opponent than the Flyers to get back on track offensively. We'll be looking for a strong home opener for him and his team in this spot.
Best Bets: Florida Panthers 1P -0.5 (-104 at FanDuel) & Aleksander Barkov Over 0.5 Power Play Points (+130 at FanDuel)