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Week 8 NFL player props: Going over on some short numbers

Marcus Mariota

Week 8 of the NFL season provides bettors with multiple valuable prop lines to take advantage of. Before we jump into a few of the best props to bet this weekend, be sure to shop around to find in the best line as player prop bets tend to fluctuate around the market. I am going to dive into four props below. Two are valuable receiving yardage props from running backs and the other two are a little riskier, projecting competence from the Atlanta Falcons.


Before getting into Cole's best bets, you can watch Week 8's edition of Props & Hops for more player props from pro bettor Hitman:



David Montgomery over 7.5 receiving yards (-105)

The Bears are on the road in Dallas where they are expected to be playing from behind for the majority of the game. They are coming off a win against the Patriots where Justin Fields showed signs of progression which he will look to carry over into this matchup with the Cowboys. In games where Montgomery was healthy throughout, he has surpassed 7.5 receiving yards in four of five and really only needs one dump off or screen to surpass this low number. The Cowboys have a strong defense who will pressure Fields and in order for him to get his feet under him, I expect the Bears to attempt to get the ball out fast. Enter Montgomery, one of the guys who will be on the receiving end of those dump passes and screen plays, with 7.5 receiving yards just too low a number. Take the over.

Derrick Henry over 11.5 receiving yards (-111)

The Tennessee Titans have finally figured out that using Derrick Henry in the passing game may be beneficial. After starting the season with zero yards receiving through the first two games, Henry has tallied 131 yards over the last four, averaging just over 32 per game. In a road matchup against the Texans, I love his chances to be game planned back into the passing game. The Texans are giving up close to 40 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs on an average of 5.5 receptions allowed per contest. Similar to Montgomery, Henry only needs one screen pass to beat this number and I expect him to see at least three receptions in this one. 

Marcus Mariota over 161.5 passing yards, Kyle Pitts over 34.5 receiving yards

I am targeting the Atlanta Falcons and their offense this week. In certain circumstances, I like to use the old DFS strategy of stacking when playing the prop market and in this matchup, I am stacking two Falcons. Stacking two Falcons is a scary sight but there is just no way this Falcons team can continue to ignore their best option and only throw the ball 13 times in a game. This Panthers defense has allowed more than 161.5 passing yards in six of seven games which includes six straight. I know, other teams are far more pass-heavy than the Falcons but one of these weeks Marcus Mariota is going to open up the playbook and if we can get ahead of that, we can make some money. Mariota started the season with three straight games surpassing 161.5 yards in which the Falcons averaged 27 points per game. He has since followed that up with four straight games to the under. This is an ugly prop to bet but sometimes the money is in the crumbs.

Kyle Pitts has a line of 34.5 receiving and although he has only surpassed this in one game this season, as I mentioned above, we’re taking a chance here. Betting on this Falcons offense could lead to many regrets Sunday afternoon, but I just feel like we have short lines on guys who are destined to breakout. These prop bets are not for the weak but for those who are willing to take a chance, join me in rooting for the Falcons to air it out on Sunday afternoon.