WTA Seoul
Opposing out-of-form Ostapenko
The first-round performance of No. 1 seed Jelena Ostapenko in Seoul has been shocking, to say the least. The Latvian lost a set to world No. 688 BoYoung Jeong and even served to stay in the match before eventually clinching in a third-set tiebreak. The home player Jeong got carried by the atmosphere, but it was Ostapenko who committed unforced error after unforced error, with nine double faults in the mix as well. The former French Open champion has almost every match on her racquet and it seems like she’s on another cold stretch. Against Anastasia Gasanova, Ostapenko not only needs to improve but play close to normal if she wants to advance to the quarterfinal stage. Gasanova had some respectable results over the last 12 months, including wins over Jil Teichmann, Zheng Qinwen, Elina Svitolina, or Alison Riske-Amritraj most recently. The Russian is yet another player whom you don’t know what to expect from, so we could be in for another messy match here, including a lot of breaks. While I would agree with the current odds on paper, Ostapenko’s form doesn’t seem to have made it from North America to Asia. I’m attacking this match from different angles and as I don’t expect Ostapenko to play a solid match from start to finish, Gasanova at least has a fighting chance.
Bets for WTA Seoul:
0.5u on Over 10.5 games 1st set (+390 with Kambi)
0.5u on Anastasia Gasanova ML (+375 with SuperBook)
0.75u on Anastasia Gasanova +1.5 sets (+120 with bet365)
WTA 125k Budapest
Topsy-turvy trend to continue?
This will be the fourth meeting between Viktoriya Tomova and Anna Karolína Schmiedlová with their three previous matches all going to a decider and two of them taking place on Hungarian clay courts. While I’m not a huge proponent of trends – at least not if they aren’t relevant anymore – this one perfectly reflects my valuation of Tomova and Schmiedlová. There isn’t much between the two when it comes to talent-levels or past performances and neither of them managed to play consistently for a longer period of time throughout their careers. In a close contest like that with two rather inconsistent players, I always like to bet on over 2.5 sets as the likelihood of a topsy-turvy affair is much higher.
Bet for WTA 125k Budapest:
1u on Over 2.5 sets in Tomova vs. Schmiedlova (+132 with Kambi)
Late turnaround for Zidanšek?
If you ask Tamara Zidanšek and Anna Bondar about their seasons, you will probably get some slightly different answers. While Bondar was able to crack the top 50 for the first time in her career, Zidanšek wasn’t able to replicate her great season of 2021 when she made the semifinal at Roland Garros and won another clay event in Lausanne. The Slovenian possesses a negative record this year and just fell to No. 100 in the rankings last week – the last time she’s been that low was in 2018. That being said, Zidanšek should be motivated to get some late-season results in, and she has been looking much better this week. Despite her rather disappointing season, Zidanšek is still ahead of Bondar in the Elo ratings. She does have the bigger upside and considering that Bondar has played a lot of tennis – not only this year but also in her second-round win over Simona Waltert, which took her three hours – I’m counting on Zidanšek to catch some form late in the year.
Bet for WTA 125k Budapest:
1u on Tamara Zidanšek ML (-115 with Caesars)
ATP Challenger Sibiu
Misolic’s consistency too much for Molleker
One last pick from the ATP Challenger tour in Sibiu where Rudi Molleker takes on Filip Misolic. While Molleker was one of the biggest hopes in German tennis a few years back, the same now applies to Misolic in Austria. The 21-year-old has steadily improved his game and beat players such as Juncheng Shang (twice), Jason Kubler, Pablo Andújar, Dušan Lajović or Yannick Hanfmann this year. As opposed to Molleker, who does have the ability to rip through opponents, Misolic possesses a super-solid baseline game. He’s the more consistent player by a country mile and even though Molleker could redline for a set, the games handicap should be a game higher in this one.
Bet for ATP Challenger Sibiu:
1u on Filip Misolic -2.5 games (-115 with Coolbet)