Congratulations to anyone backing Joohyung Kim at the Shriners Children’s Open winning by three strokes and finishing 24-under par. It was my first article posted on TheHammer last week, and happy to say I’m off to a good start, although we didn’t hit anything outright, I brought back +3.50u in total after going 5–1 with placement and group picks.
This week the tour goes international. Chiba, Japan will host the ZOZO Championship for the third time in four years. The field is getting more competitive by the week here on tour, and we have some of the bigger names making the trip to Japan this weekend.
Tournament Information:
The ZOZO Championship debuted on tour in 2019 being played at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan. Tiger Woods won the inaugural event. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this event was forced to stay on United States soil in 2020, but returned back to Japan in 2021.
The prize purse this weekend is up to 11 million dollars, with the winner taking home close to two million, along with 500 Fedex Cup points. The field will also be smaller than normal this week, with only 78 golfers competing and no cut after 36 holes.
Event History:
ZOZO Championship WInners:
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15) / 2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23) - In California /
2019: Tiger Woods (-19)
Lowest Winning Score: Tiger Woods (-19) @ Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Largest Margin of Victory: Hideki Matsuyama won the event last year by five strokes, while only shooting -15.
Playoff Information: Both years that this tournament has been played at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club the winner has won by three strokes or more.
Detailed Scorecard:
Course Information:
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a short par-70 track playing 7079 yards, with the traditional two green setup on every hole commonly found in Japan. The rough and fairways are made up of Zoysiagrass, which is rare on tour, only being found at a select few locations throughout the season.
The green complexes at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club transition into a bentgrass seed, which is more commonly found on the PGA Tour, and has been the turf these players have putted on in three of the four weeks to start this season.
Being that there are two greens on every hole, it only makes sense that each green would be smaller than average. 6000 square feet is approximately the average size of PGA tour greens, this weekend at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club each green will be about 5,400 square feet on average.
Players Path To Victory:
Off The Tee:
Although the course is considered to be relatively short at 7079 yards, it does require some distance off of the tee, as Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club has 10 par 4s, five of which are listed over 450 yards, and only two being listed under 400, and three par 5s all listed over 550 yards. .
The fairways are all lined with trees creating tight windows for golfers off of the tee, and many of these holes demand accuracy to a specific side of the fairway off the tee to create an approach angle, depending on what green is in use that day.
Par 4 Scoring (450-500 Yards):
On par 70 tracks, par 4 scoring is always going to come at a premium because there are more of them on the course, but here at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, birdies are tough to come by, and whoever plays these long par 4s to even par this weekend, will be putting themselves in a really good spot going into Sunday.
Par 5 Scoring (500-550 Yards):
There are only three par 5s out at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, and all are fairly long. These are must-have birdies for players competing for the top spot this weekend. The 6th and 18th holes were by far the most birdied holes last year at this event last year by more than 60 birdies on each hole.
The other par 5 is the 14th hole, the longest of the three listed at 605 yards. Last year this hole was only birdied 56 times, but the only hole birdied more, excluding the other par 5s, was the short par 4 listed at 363 yards.
Key Statistics:
- SG: Off The Tee
- SG: Approach
- Proximity to the Hole
- Greens in Regulation Percentage
- SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
The Field:
As mentioned in the event information part of this field, this event only consists of 78 golfers, but it will be the most competitive tournament we’ve had this season. Guys like Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, and Xander Schauffele will be making their first starts of the season.
This field will also feature the likes of Corey Connors, Tommy Fleetwood, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sahith Theegala as some of the more recognizable names, but there are plenty of other guys in this field playing great golf.
This course has only been seen on tour twice now, but here are a few guys that have had success in Japan…
- Hideki Matsuyama(+20000) 1 / 2
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) T7 / T22
- Keegan Bradley (+2000) T7 / T13
- Colin Morikowa (+200000) T7 / T22
There are also a handful of guys who have also been trending in the right direction over their last five starts on tour…
- Sungjae Im (+100000) T2 / T15 / 12 / T2 / T2
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1000) T22 / T57 / T4 / T4 / T46
- Corey Conners (+10000) MC / 26 / T5 / T28 / T21
- Tom Hoge (+11100) T4 / T12 / 10 / T48 / T4
Official Picks:
Outrights:
Sungjae Im - (+1100) @ Bet365 - To Win 7.00u
Sungjae Im is one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour, his swing looks robotic at times, which gives him this consistency to compete for the win every time he attends an event.
In Im’s last six starts on tour he has finished 7 / T2 / T15 / 12 / T2 / T2. He has gained strokes off of the tee in 24 of his last 25 starts on tour, and finished last season ranked No. 27 in driving accuracy.
Im is a phenomenal approach player and has demonstrated that in his last two starts gaining +2.53 strokes approaching the green.
Cameron Young (+1800) @ Bet365 - To Win 7.00u
Cameron Young had an awesome rookie year on the PGA Tour, he had 18 top 40 finishes, in 25 starts on tour last season. Young ranked No.3 on tour in driving distance, which will give him an advantage on the longer par 4s and 5s.
Young bombs it, there is no doubt about that, and last year he ranked right around the tour average in driving accuracy, but has a phenomenal approach play that can save some errant drives. Last season Young ranked tied for No. 16 in par 4 efficiency between 450-500 yards, and ranked No. 72 on tour in par 5 scoring efficiency between 550 and 600 yards.
Keegan Bradley (+3500) @ DraftKings - To Win 7.00u
Bradley has had an eye for this course, he has attended the event in both years it has been played in Japan and he has finished T7 and T13 at the ZOZO Championship. Bradley has finished inside the top 10 in seven events dating back to the start of last season, and most recently finished T5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship two weeks ago.
Bradley ranked right around the tour average in driving accuracy last season, but has hit more fairways than the field on average in nine of his last 11 starts on tour.
Bradley is an exceptional par 5 player ranking No. 38 on tour last season in par 5 efficiency between 450-500 yards, and Bradley can also hold his own on longer par 4s ranking No. 85 in par 4 efficiency between 450-500 yards.
Cameron Davis (+4000) @ DraftKings - To Win 7.00u
This is more of a gut feel pick, and less data backing, but last season he had eight finishes inside the top 20 and hasn’t won an event since the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic, my eyes kept getting drawn back to Davis while breaking down the field, so i’m going to put this one out there as a flyer.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.40u
Placements:
Top 20 Finishes:
Lucas Herbert (+160) @ Bet365 - To Win 1.00u
Herbert was the last guy excluded from my outright picks, ultimately because he is unreliable when it comes to driving the golf ball accurately. However, he hits the ball a mile, and could benefit from this short track allowing him to take shorter clubs off of the tee without giving away too much distance.
Herbert is a phenomenal short game player and that includes his putter. Last year Herbert ranked No. 1 on tour in strokes gained putting, and could be on pace to lead the tour again this season after gaining +0.95 strokes in his first appearance of this season at the Shriners Children's Open last weekend.
In his last eight starts between the PGA and European Tours, Herbert has five top 20 finishes over that time span, and is coming off of a T20 last weekend.
Last weekend Herbert actually hit more fairways than the field average last weekend and that is only something that has happened four times since the start of last season. I’m hoping he can build on that in his second start following the offseason.
Mackenzie Hughes (+200) @ DraftKings - To Win 1.00u
Hughes is coming off of a win in playoff holes at the Sanderson Farms Championship two weeks ago. What I find interesting about this as it relates to the ZOZO Championship, is that Hughes won that event with a final score of 17-under par, which should be around the number that wins this weekend.
Hughes isn’t known as a pure ball striker, but he led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green two weeks ago, and has gained +1.26 on approach in his two starts this season.
Hughes is a golfer that doesn’t have to take unnecessary risks, and can rely on his elite short game to keep him in contention week in and week out. Over his first eight rounds this season Hughes has gained +1.93 strokes with the putter which ranks fifth among golfers who have played two or more events this season.
Top **30** Finishes:
Sam Ryder (+162) @ Bet365 - To Win 1.00u
For anyone who read last week’s article, I hope you tailed the Sam Ryder top 40 pick, as it one one of our wins last weekend, and I am going to go right back to the well for the second week in a row.
For those that didn’t read last week’s article, here's why I like Ryder. Ryder has gained strokes with his putter in three straight events, as well as gaining strokes on approach in three straight events.
Adam Schnek (+125) @ Bet365 - To Win 1.00u
This is another guy that cashed us a ticket last weekend at TPC Summerlin. Schnek seems to like playing this part of the schedule, as two years in a row now, he has finished inside the top 30 at the Shriners Children’s Open, and finished in a tie for 28th at the ZOZO Championship last year.
By no means has Schnek been consistent over the past year of golf, but last week he gained +1.39 shots on approach and hit 11% more fairways than the field on average. Schnek also got the flat stick rolling last week, gaining strokes on the greens for the first time in three events this season. Staying on bentgrass this weekend should allow him to continue that success with the putter, and his swing has been super consistent the last two weeks. I like Schnek to have another good week here.
Total Risk on Placements: 2.55u
Matchups & Groups:
Hideki Matsuyama - Top Japanese Finisher (+160) @ Bet365 - To Win 1.00u
I am going to be honest, I don’t have a clue who any of these Japanese golfers outside of Matsuyama, but my model has Matsuyama line for this market set at +128, giving me +EV and the next golfer behind him has a projection of +1500 when his actual odds are sitting +1100.
Matsuyama hasn’t played since his season debut at the Fortinet Championship in September where he finished T25. Matsuyama had 10 top 20 finishes last season on tour and won two events including the ZOZO Championship.
The Japanese native will again have the support of the fans in attendance, and after winning the event last year it just feels wrong not to have action on him when he’s shown he can deal with the pressure of playing in his backyard.
Total Risk of Groups: 0.62u
Total Risk: 4.67u