Beating the closing line is the best long-run sign you're betting well, but a lot of what gets called CLV isn't, and even great numbers lose all the time. I used years of NFL and college football line data to show what CLV actually measures, whether the market really gets sharper as kickoff gets closer, and whether you should fade or follow big line moves.
Line data: Betstamp (Rob is a co-owner). NFL scores and historical closing lines: nflverse.
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🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake: https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM
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SHOW INDEX
0:00 - The CLV Trophy
1:30 - PART 1: What Closing Line Value Actually Is
2:30 - Mistake 1: The Number Without the Price
3:15 - Mistake 2: Not Enough to Matter
4:25 - Why Raw Points Don't Work
5:19 - How Much You Beat It By (76,742 Bets)
7:37 - Why Good Bets Still Lose
9:22 - Sponsored by ProphetX
10:09 - PART 2: Is the Market Still Sharp?
12:29 - The Line Gets Sharper Through the Week
15:36 - PART 3: Fade or Follow the Big Moves?
19:21 - 261 Ways to Cut It
20:51 - The Moves Were Right
22:49 - What to Actually Do
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
#ClosingLineValue #CLV #SportsBetting #NFL #CollegeFootball #BettingEducation
