Peanut breaks down how he rebuilt his NBA player prop model from the ground up into an automated dashboard, what changed from the old manual process, and how he decides which assumptions to adjust when a player's role or shot profile changes. He also explains the futures and awards model he's building, how to account for voter behavior, and the early season question every NBA bettor faces: how much to react to a team's first ten games, how to tell a real change from noise, and how to read rookies and later picks who start hot.
The mailbag covers whether the link between defensive RAPM, height and assist rate is a real effect, Peanut's biggest betting mistake and how it changed his process, and political debate hypotheticals. The episode closes with What Grinds My Gears, from fourth down analytics to touts who reset every season, and the +EV Moves Of The Week. Jacob Gramegna is joined by Peanut, a pro sports bettor, for this episode of Off Script.
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📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days
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SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Work In Progress Check
17:47 - Early-Season Overreactions
21:14 - Rookies And New Faces
26:10 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions
37:04 - What Grinds My Gears
45:58 - +EV Moves Of The Week
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
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