This episode covers a wide range of topics across betting, prediction markets, and probabilistic thinking. We start with the Brendan Sorsby situation after reports surfaced about a major gambling-related issue involving the Texas Tech QB, including over 10,000 bets placed dating back to 2022. The conversation focuses on what this means for gambling integrity in college sports and the broader responsibility discussion that comes with it.
From there, the panel reacts to Isaac Rose-Berman’s recent article on prediction markets and the way they are positioned as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks. The discussion explores whether that framing is accurate, how these platforms actually generate profit, and what bettors often misunderstand about their structure. The group also breaks down a viral take from Plus EV Analytics on parlay thinking and how human intuition struggles with probability when outcomes are layered together.
Host Jacob Gramegna is joined throughout the episode by Joey Knish, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Chris Dierkes (Flupnolide), a trader at Novig, with all four contributors involved in the full discussion across gambling, markets, and bettor psychology.
📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
🔵 Get Betstamp PRO’s New Live Betting Screen → https://bit.ly/4lsovnG
LINKS
🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42
🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/joeyknish22
🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/flupnolide
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back Friday with Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Bermna, Joey Knish, and Chris Dierkes
2:30 - NCAA QB suffering from a gambling addiction
14:17 - Isaac's piece on prediction markets
25:07 - Leviathan of Locks re-emerges
32:24 - Abstract probabilistic thinking
41:39 - Caitlin Clark 54+ points
46:51 - The end of horse racing?
53:18 - Blue button vs. red button
59:57 - Chopping block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
