Another week of the college football season is over, seems like just yesterday we were sweating week 0 games. As we turn the page and move onto Week 7, let’s look at some opening lines to try and identify some winners and capture CLV. Last week’s article turned in a 2-0 performance with TCU/Kansas over and App State/Texas State over. Let’s hope we can keep that rolling this week, without further ado, let’s look at some of this week’s openers.
Penn State vs Michigan
This total for this Big Ten matchup currently sits at 51 for most books. The Michigan Wolverines are off to an undefeated start to the 2022 season. If you look at any of the underlying metrics of the Wolverines, the defense looks quite impressive on paper. In this week’s matchup, I am looking at playing the total. Outside of Michigan’s game against Maryland, the Wolverines have not faced an offense that ranks inside of the top 90 in offensive success rate. Most of Michigan’s opponents this year have ranked well into the bottom 30 of college football, those rankings courtesy of CFBGRAPHS. Maryland, currently a top 25 offensive team in the country, were able to score 27 on the Michigan defense before falling 34-27. If either team falls behind early, they may be forced to throw the ball more than they are used to and the tempo of the game could pick up.
Penn State is quite proficient at protecting the quarterback, they are top 50 in sack rate, this should allow the time for Sean Clifford to find open receivers and put pressure on the potentially untested Wolverines defense. In terms of how we want to play this game currently, I would wait to see if there is buy back on the consensus total of 51, if this number falls to 50 or even better 49.5. I would look to play the over in this game. The unknown of the Michigan defense is intriguing and both offenses should have enough fire power to push this over the number.
Arkansas State vs Southern Miss
Another total is on deck for this week, let’s look at the under between Arkansas State and Southern Mississippi. Both teams are bottom half offenses in college football and struggle to protect the quarterback. Southern Miss is currently the 119th ranked team in offensive sack rate on passing downs, and Arkansas State is 110th in total offensive sack rate. With limited time for both quarterbacks to make their reads we could see both times look to establish the run game which would be a nice boost for the under. While both teams struggle protecting their quarterback, both can really get after the opposing signal caller. Both teams are top 25 in the nation in defensive sack rate and should be able to disrupt this game and each offense's tempo. Arkansas State has an impressive pass game, ranking 30th in EPA per play but Southern Miss should be able to match this with their equally impressive 11th ranked passing defense.
In terms of tempo within this game, Arkansas State loves to go fast, they run about 76 offensive plays per game, although Southern Miss is the complete opposite and loves to be slow and methodical on offense, they are just outside of the top 100 in offensive plays. The current best available market number in this game is 56 (-108) at LowVig. I currently project this number around 51, I would be comfortable playing this down about 2 points. But if you can grab a 56 in market, I would grab that number for the week.