Pretty interesting game to pick this week as the victor seems to be straight forward but the ATS record for both teams has been subpar this season. The 8-2 Chiefs are cooking right now but they are 3-6-1 ATS, and the the 3-7 Rams haven't fared much better touting a 2-7-1 record ATS. The Rams need a bunch of Advil as the Super Bowl hangover has been real, with the second worst record ever (3-7) after winning the Lombardi through the first 10 games. Only the 1987 Giants and the 1999 Broncos have started off this poorly through 10 games.
To compound things further Matthew Stafford has been ruled out and is in the concussion protocol even though McVay told reporters he's not sure if Stafford even has a concussion. This is one of those weird grey areas of the concussion protocol where if a player is taken out of a game early with neck pain they get automatically placed in protocol. In a more practical view I think McVay and the Rams organization is folding the cards on the season after losing four straight and want to preserve their assets and regroup for next year.
With Stafford out Bryce Perkins from the University of Virginia is slated to start against one of the best offenses in the league without star wideout Cooper Kupp (ankle surgery/IR) and Tyler Higbee is questionable with knee swelling. The whole knife to a gunfight cliche is spot on here, as this second year QB is making his first NFL start and doesn't have any real weapons. The Chiefs tough rushing D is problematic for the Rams as to protect a young QB any team needs to be able to run the ball and more importantly to make any big plays the Rams will need Perkins legs to create some first downs.
Joe Osborne of VegasInsider recaps his Week 11 NFL Teaser bets and gives his BEST teaser bets for Week 12. Joe is picking up some more wins now and is looking to get hot at just the right time so he can ride off into the sunset with a positive record.
Interesting facts:
- The Over/Under seems to be a coin flip as both of these teams have been pretty even all season....the Rams 4-6 while the Chiefs are 5-5
- Bryce Perkins 2+ TDs player prop bet is +1600. His Rushing Yards props are a big mystery, making it hard to find on many books.
Why the Chiefs can cover -15.5 spread:
- Walking Hall of Famer Travis Kelce has been on an absolute tear since Oct 2 and since then has not had a game with any less than 6 receptions and has 9 TDs
- The Rams have one of the worst offenses in the NFL- 30th in Total Yards (288 yds/game), 29th in Points Scored (16.8 pts/game) and 31st in Rushing Yards (76.1 yds/game)
- The Chiefs rank first in the NFL in three major statistical categories- Total Yards (429.3), Passing Yards (314.7) and Points Scored (30)
- The Chiefs have the fifth best Rushing Defense in the NFL holding opponents to 100.6 yards/game
Why the Rams can cover +15.5 spread:
- The Chiefs have only one win ATS in the last six games which was against San Fran in Week 6
- Nobody knows who Bryce Perkins is and to study film on him the Chiefs have to back to 2019 to look at his college film or some preseason snaps from this year
- An unknown dual threat QB that looks like a WR could possibly be elusive enough to keep the Rams within two scores. Not enough to win but good enough to cover
Eye of the athlete:
This is a 'take care of business' game for the Chiefs. The most important thing about this game is protecting home field since the Bills marched into Arrowhead and stole one on the road in Week 6. As of now, the AFC road to the Lombardi trophy still has to stop in Kansas City and the Chiefs need to preserve home field advantage which I'm sure Andy Reid is preaching this week. The Chiefs need to avoid a let down game and that means not letting the Rams hang around. Bryce Perkins is trying to make a name for himself, this is in essence his Super Bowl game to validate his existence in the NFL which will dictate the trajectory of his career as an undrafted free agent from 2020.
Payback McVino's picks this week...Chiefs -15.5