With Week 5 of college football upon us, what better time than now to examine the futures market and look at Heisman hopefuls and conference title odds for Conference USA. Each week we will examine the current Heisman market and conference title odds for a different conference throughout the year. The preseason Heisman favorite CJ Stroud is the leader in the clubhouse having thrown for 16 passing touchdowns and 1,222 passing yards with only one interception. This early in the season, Stroud is rightfully the favorite but let's examine some other players who may be able to close this gap and find themselves in New York for the Heisman ceremony.
Twice as nice for Young
Look no further than last year's Heisman winner Bryce Young who has started the year right where he left off throwing for 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions through four games. The Crimson Tide are off to yet another undefeated start taking down the Texas Longhorns in their most significant game of the young season. In this game Young had a very important scramble late in the fourth quarter to extend an Alabama drive and set up a game winning field goal. Through the rest of the regular season looking at my current ratings I do not have Alabama less than 8-point favorites. The remaining Bama schedule sets up nicely for Young to accumulate stats and potentially finish the regular season undefeated which is something that will certainly turn the heads of Heisman voters. Another potential date with the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC championship seems more and more likely each week. A win against Georgia in that game with Young leading the way may just be the Heisman moment he needs to capture back-to-back Heisman honors which has not been done since Archie Griffin.
Penix Jr. and Huskies Top Dog?
Michael Penix Jr. has been the surprise performer of the season so far. The former Indiana Hoosiers quarterback has turned the once inept Washington Huskies offense into an offense that no defense has yet been able to slow down. Penix Jr. has had some very impressive performances early in the season totaling 12 touchdowns while also leading the nation in passing with 1,388 yards and getting Washington off to an undefeated start. According to CFB Graphs, the Huskies pass offense is producing at .441 EPA per pass, good for No. 6 in the country. An impressive improvement for a team last year that struggled to even complete passes. Currently Penix Jr. hovers around 50-1 odds to win the Heisman. Unlike Bryce Young and Alabama, Washington is not a sure fire 11 or 12 win team each year making it harder for Penix Jr. to get the Heisman attention he will need if he only wins eight games this year. Currently my ratings show Washington will only be a dog one time for the rest of the year when they travel to Oregon for a showdown with the Ducks. If Penix Jr. and the Washington Huskies can find a way to 10 wins and a potential Pac-12 championship game, it would not be a shock to see him in New York alongside Bryce Young. In my opinion the current upside of the team and his outstanding early season play warrants a smaller price than currently seen.
With nonconference play for most teams over and some teams having played a few conference matchups already, let's dive into some conference title odds.
Conference USA Title Odds
An early season surprise through the first four weeks is the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. The loss of last year's starting quarterback and now New England Patriots backup Bailey Zappe, was a large piece to replace but Austin Reed has stepped in and kept the offensive juggernaut of last year moving forward. Reed is No.4 in the nation in touchdown passes and almost led Western Kentucky to a win over Indiana in a game which Western Kentucky should have won. A few fourth quarter hiccups saw the Hilltoppers lose the game in overtime, still an impressive showing to go on the road to a power 5 school and put a scare into the Indiana Hoosier faithful. The best price in the market currently to win Conference USA for Western Kentucky is +500 at BetMGM. The current favorite UAB has some question marks that scare me away from them. The offense is currently outside the top 85 in offensive success rate and is only 85th in offensive EPA, they just may not have enough if Western Kentucky wants to turn it into an offensive battle.
UAB has enough weapons to stop Western Kentucky, making them a vulnerable favorite. UTSA is currently the second favorite to win the conference with best available odds of +375 at Fanduel. UTSA scares me as well when looking into some of their advanced stats, they currently are 96th in offensive success rate but 43rd in EPA. It seems that UTSA has relied on the big plays this year rather than an efficient well-rounded offense. In conference play when teams are more familiar with each other, the big plays can dry up quickly and without a stable offense, points can be tough to come by. The defense of UTSA has been strong with a success rate of 25th in the nation according to CFB-Graphs but an EPA per play ranking of 92nd in the country. Western Kentucky has the offensive firepower to exploit these weaknesses with the 39th ranked success rate on offense and an EPA per play ranking of 19th. Western Kentucky, a team not known for their defensive ability, has played rather well on the defensive side of the ball with the 26th ranked success rate in the country. In my opinion the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers may be the most well-rounded team in the conference and with a best available price of +500 at BetMGM, they are certainly worth a look.