We’re only a few weeks into the NBA season, but it already feels like it’s been a year. There have been a lot of key developments that have shifted how I’m looking at teams — both for this year and the future. I’m going to go through a few of the biggest things that have caught my eye early on.
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Keyonte George… good?
This is quietly a huge year for the Jazz. They have nine roster players in their first three years, and up until this point, none had proven they project to be a good starter in the NBA. At some point in a rebuild, you have to hit on a few prospects, or you end up stuck trying to get better before you’re ready. Thankfully for Utah, it’s starting to look like Keyonte might actually be a guy.
He’s nearly doubled his free-throw rate from 0.31 to 0.612 — third in the league in free throws per game — and he’s increased his TS% by 5% despite shooting a career-worst from three this season. If he keeps drawing fouls and just regresses back to his normal three-point shooting, he’s going to be a very good scorer. He’s also averaging eight assists per game, and the team is 11.1 points better offensively with him on the floor. I’m not going to talk about the defense — it’s still really bad — but overall, George has significantly improved his career outlook through just the first eight games of this season
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Houston Is a Problem
It feels like a long time ago that Houston started 0–2. Since then, they’re 5–0 with an average margin of victory of 19. They’re now the number-one net rating team in the league — first on offense and second on defense. People questioned if they could maintain their insane offensive rebounding rate from last year, and so far, they’ve increased it by 4%, leading the league in ORB% by a full 3.7%.
What’s crazy is that none of the stars on the team is even playing above expectations. Sengun is shooting worse from two than last year, though he’s getting to the line more and passing better. Amen is scoring more, but he still can’t shoot at all — his TS% is down 5% — and he has just two blocks on the season after averaging 1.3 per game last year. Durant’s TS% is also way down despite a significant drop in usage. And yet, this team is still first in offensive rating. It doesn’t matter as much if the shots don’t fall when you grab every rebound. They’re also playing a ton of zone, and the defense has been fantastic.
I had a theory that this might actually be the optimal way to use Durant: no spacing, but optimize everything else. He’s the player in the league who thrives most in tight spaces, so letting him shoot in a phone booth and grabbing every rebound he misses actually makes sense. It’s a shame they lost Fred, because Reed Sheppard isn’t ready — and this team could genuinely be a contender with a real point guard.
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Detroit Is Going to Win a Lot of Regular Season Games
I was somewhat concerned about the Pistons coming into the year. I thought losing Malik Beasley’s production would hurt, and I wasn’t sure if giving more minutes to Holland and Ivey would work out. Even though we’re only eight games in, I’m pretty confident I was wrong here.
The Pistons are 6–2 with a +5.3 net rating. The story of this team so far has been the bigs and the defense. Detroit is third in defensive rating, and the biggest driver is how completely they’ve shut off the rim. Teams are shooting just 55.5% at the rim — easily first in the league. Isaiah Stewart, long one of the most underappreciated defenders in the NBA, is defending 6.4 shots per game at the rim and holding opponents to 47.1% — both elite numbers. Duren is defending fewer shots (3.6 per game) but holding opponents to just 44.8%. If those numbers stick, that’s a huge leap for Duren, who allowed 62.3% at the rim last season.
That’s not the only area Duren’s improved. His usage is up from 16.4% to 23.6%, and he’s doing it while maintaining a ridiculous 68% true shooting. Stewart and Duren have been starting together with Tobias Harris hurt, and in the 74 minutes they’ve shared the floor, Detroit is +22 — with very little three-point shooting luck. If they continue to get 48 strong minutes from their centers, they’re going to keep racking up regular season wins.
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The Celtics Are Liars
This one’s more betting-focused, but if you’re an NBA bettor, you’ve definitely heard all offseason about how the Celtics were going to have these new run-and-gun offenses. This is what Jaylen Brown said in early October about Boston’s pace:
“I don’t even play for a basketball team — I play for a track team.”
“Joe took it to a whole ‘nother level.”
Well… the Boston Celtics rank dead last in pace through nine games. That “track team” must be the slowest goddamn track team in the world.
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Conclusion
We’re still early, but the first few weeks of the season have already rewritten a bunch of preseason narratives. Guys like Keyonte George and teams like Houston and Detroit are forcing re-evaluations on the fly, while others — like Boston’s “track team” — are reminding us how much preseason talk can be smoke.
It’s been a chaotic start, but it’s also a reminder: the edges in this league fade fast. You’ve got to adjust just as quickly as the teams do.
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