Kirk's Hammer: NBA futures outlook

It’s been a busy NBA season, so I haven’t written anything in a few weeks, but the NBA gods (schedule makers) gave a bit of a slower week for the NBA Cup. That break is always a great time to really dig into futures, which I have a tougher time doing in the grind of the day-to-day NBA with 11-game days and 6 back-to-backs. Today I’m going to write about futures markets I’ve bet recently or think could be interesting going forward.

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NBA Champion

If you haven’t bet OKC to win the title yet, I believe you’re making a big mistake. I get it — it’s gross they’re -110 at FanDuel and it feels disgusting to bet a -110 in a futures market (there are better numbers elsewhere). If you have a smaller bankroll and this is really going to hurt you getting down and rolling it over, fine, I can see an argument. But otherwise, this is something you should bet.

I have the Thunder at 65% to win the title. That’s a 24% edge on a market you can get a significant amount down on. It’s pretty simple: this team is significantly better than any team I’ve ever recorded in my spread-rankings model. They’re 24-1 and are young, deep, and nearly impervious to injury. OKC was the #1 team ever in my spread rankings even before Jalen Williams was back. They’re easily the favourite if anyone other than Shai goes down, and even if Shai was injured, they’re likely only underdogs to a handful of teams. This could well be the best team ever, and getting them at plus odds or even a small minus is worth it.

I tweeted recently that we should just give OKC the title so we can see who comes second, and that’s very much how I feel about the NBA Finals market. The Thunder are going to have to steam to -150 or more for me to even start considering betting anyone else.


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Eastern Conference Champion

I wrote before the season that I absolutely loved the Cavs to win the East. Unfortunately, the Cavs have been snakebit to start the year, and they have serious questions going forward. Specifically: can Darius Garland stay healthy or even find a version of himself similar to last year? This has really opened up the East. The Knicks are the current favourite, and I think deservingly so.

The team I was betting on some — and still think was good — is Orlando at +700 at FD. The Magic are a bit of a mystery. They started off the season rough, then really got rolling after Paolo got hurt, and now Franz is out for a month with a high ankle sprain. The good news for Orlando is the three of Franz, Suggs, and Bane are all at or exceeding expectations, and Anthony Black and even Tristan Da Silva have added solid depth. The worry is that Paolo might just not be that good. For years the excuses have been about Paolo’s offensive environment, but now even with far better teammates, things just seem so sticky and slow with Paolo on, and much more free-flowing with him off.

I still think at +700 the Magic are plus-EV. Even without Paolo, the Magic were being priced near the top of the East, and if Paolo can figure it out, they have the upside to be the best team in the conference.

My worry about this market is that teams are going to go on mini-runs, and I’m going to show some value on all top-six teams at some point or another. I think I’m going to need to show decently sized edges before pulling the trigger on any bet here.

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Sixth Man of the Year

This is the most frustrating award market I can remember. The favourite in this market is Jaime Jaquez. Since the Heat have gotten healthy, he’s been averaging 22 mpg; without more injuries, Jaquez is a very unlikely winner.

The second favourite is now Anthony Black, who’s starting for Franz, averaging only 13 ppg and won’t be in this team’s closing lineup when they’re healthy — again, a pretty unlikely winner. Third is Reed Sheppard. At one point it seemed like he might be the clear favourite, but he’s had a really rough stretch, I’m not sure Ime trusts him, and he’ll be cut down some when Tari and maybe Dorian Finney-Smith come back. Reed’s stats just aren’t really there either; he’s also only averaging 13 ppg.

I can keep going down the list discussing why the top guys aren’t going to win, but… who the hell is? Normally in a market where the top guys are overpriced, there’s awesome opportunity, but I have not been able to find it. I think Quentin Grimes or Naz Reid maybe have a little bit of value, but nothing great. Onyeka probably would have been walking into this award if Kristaps was healthy, but he’s now totally dead.

It’s a very weird market, and I think the winner maybe hasn’t emerged yet. This has the makings of some RORTs, but I don’t believe anyone is that yet.

                            
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Most Valuable Player

Similar to OKC, Shai is a gross but very, very good bet here. Shai just seems wildly underappreciated in the NBA media/Twitter world. He’s averaging 32.6 ppg on 69% TS while playing on the league’s best defense and maybe the greatest team ever.

It’s now a two-horse race between Jokic and Shai, with the rest of the field maybe holding 1–2% of the equity — and that’s pretty much only Luka. But Shai should quite clearly be minus odds here. Team wins always have a significant effect on the MVP race, and OKC is currently +235 to break the NBA all-time wins record and -270 to have 70+ wins. Considering how ridiculous Shai’s numbers are, Jokic is just going to have a tough time competing with how large the win gap is going to be between them.

I think Jokic is very live in this market, and is somewhere between 30-40% to win, but that still easily makes Shai good at +130.


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