Kirk's Hammer: Why you should bet on WNBA all-star weekend... and the Minnesota Vikings

Why You Should Be Originating WNBA All-Star Weekend

Most novice bettors are told to avoid novelty events — skills comps, 3PT contests, All-Star games, etc. Some of this is fair — it’s definitely a lower-liquidity market, and one that you’re going to have a hard time getting down on. That being said, if you’re a top-down bettor or just trying to get into origination, I think WNBA All-Star Weekend is the perfect bootcamp to start.

For one, there’s very little competition. Most sharp groups ignore these markets entirely — they’re low-limit, short-lived, and mostly out of the scope of what the real big boys do. All-Star Weekend is also typically a break for people who bet the sport seriously. I got a message from my stats provider yesterday after I was bitching about some of the data that read, “we’re allowed to have vacations too.” But that also means books don’t put much effort into pricing these lines. I’d say All-Star events are the most likely to post a line that is just way off and have that line last.

Low-liquidity markets exist everywhere, and I’m sure a lot are mispriced, but it’s far more likely you follow the WNBA than second-division Norwegian soccer. Following the sport can provide a pretty huge advantage here: you understand who might try and who might not, and how a player’s game might translate to an All-Star format.

All-Star is also great for finding a correlated angle that wouldn’t be priced in. Let’s say you think the sightlines in the arena are far worse than a typical three-point contest — you could take every under in the three-point contest, and some books would let you parlay them. That can be a pretty sizeable edge if you find it.

Another great part is these bets are only up once a year, so the scrapers like OddsJam don’t grab them. If a book posts something way off-market, it won’t get absolutely nuked right away.

The biggest edge from betting any event like this comes from doing your homework. Go back and dig through past WNBA All-Star Weekends, even NBA formats if necessary. That’s how you win in a market like All-Star Weekend.

In short: this is the perfect on-ramp. You know the league. You care. You’re not up against syndicates or bots. And the books mostly don't care. That’s a rare combo — take advantage of it.

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Why You Should Bet on the Minnesota Vikings to Win the Super Bowl

Rarely will I put a bet into this newsletter, but this Vikings bet is a really fun one to talk about, and it’s been up forever so I don’t think this writing will move the market. I also don’t originate NFL and you should take this with a fat grain of salt.

The Minnesota Vikings are like that Jonah Hill meme from Moneyball where they’re a completely loaded team, but their defect is they’re starting a QB with 0 NFL experience. As previously mentioned, I’m not an NFL sharp, but everyone I’ve spoken to says they’re an even better roster than last year’s 14-3 team. But what if having JJ McCarthy isn’t a defect at all?

When I’m gushing about the Vikings to anyone who will listen, I often get, “You think JJ McCarthy is good?” I have absolutely no fucking clue if he’s good. Honestly, I watched him in college and thought he looked super mediocre. But you know what? My opinion is irrelevant. Here is what is relevant: One of the best teams in the NFL, who has probably the best “QB whisperer” of a coach, took him 10th overall in what looks to be a loaded QB draft class.

The other thing I get is people saying, “He’s a rookie.” But he’s not a rookie — he just didn’t play in year one. Those are two very different things. We’ve seen many QBs (cough Patrick Mahomes cough) come in and be elite right away after sitting their first season. Also in basketball, top picks like Blake Griffin, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Chet Holmgren were all injured their first season and immediately were All-Star level players to start their second season.

Human brains are very bad at imagining tail outcomes, and I think if you train your brain to widen the range of possible outcomes, you become a much better bettor. Of course, in the 40th to 60th percentile of outcomes, JJ McCarthy is fine and probably not good enough to win a Super Bowl this year. But once you get to the 70th to 80th percentile outcomes, he becomes a good QB on an insane team with one of the best coaches in the league. The team that most obviously comes to mind in comparison is the 2018 Chiefs.

This is all predicated on McCarthy being good, and of course it’s plausible he sucks as well. But that’s why we’re betting them to win the Super Bowl — we’re betting on a longshot that just needs McCarthy to land in the 75th percentile. And if he does? You’re holding a ticket on a top-five roster with elite coaching and massive upside at the most important position… at 30:1.

You’re not betting on what’s most likely. You’re betting on what’s possible — and mispriced.

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