Kirk's Hammer: WNBA Midseason Review

We’re roughly halfway through the WNBA season, and it’s shaping up to be a great one. With the All-Star break next week, it felt like the right time to catch up on every team—reflecting on where I was right or wrong coming into the year, and projecting where each team might land in the second half.

My preseason assumption that the W was entering its parity era seems mostly correct. I said six teams felt like they could win the title to start the season. At this point, I’d say five teams still have a real chance: New York, Minnesota, Phoenix, Seattle, and Atlanta. The market continues to price Indiana as a contender, but I think that’s more the Caitlin Clark tax than a reflection of how they’ve actually played. In the past three years, we entered the All-Star break with maybe two or three teams that felt like they had real hope. This year? The league feels wide open.

Just like at the beginning of the season, I’m going team by team. But this time, I’ll focus less on individual player breakdowns and more on how each team has performed as a unit—and what that means for the second half.

Minnesota Lynx — Net Rating: +13

The Lynx are a team I’ve doubted in the past, but at this point they’ve clearly proven to be a wagon. The big story has been Napheesa Collier taking another leap, which is wild considering she was already a top-two player coming into the year. She’s taken the crown as the league’s best player, and there’s a significant gap between her and everyone else.

At times, I’ve described Phee as a glitch. Somehow, she’s increased her PPG by 3.4 while bumping her TS% by 6%, all while likely being the best defensive player in the league—for the best defense in the league.

There are no more questions about Minnesota as a regular season team. They’re 17–3 and will likely walk into the playoffs as the #1 seed. The only remaining question is what happens in the playoffs. This team is built differently than a traditional WNBA superteam. The Liberty and Aces had at least three top-10 players on their title rosters. The Lynx are Phee... and then a lot of really, really good players—not stars. The playoff question is whether secondary options like Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams can deliver at the highest level.

That said, I’m nitpicking. Minnesota nearly won a title last year and they’re better this year. They’re a legit title contender, if not the outright favorite.

New York Liberty — Net Rating: +8.9

For the first eleven games, it looked like parity might be a lie. The Liberty were 10–1 with an 18.5 net rating. Then Jonquel Jones got hurt. Since then? They’re 3–5 with a -4.3 net. In that time, Leo Fiebiech missed games for EuroCup, and Sabrina Ionescu dealt with neck issues.

Jones might be one of the more underrated players in the W. She’s a former MVP and while her scoring isn’t what it used to be, she’s still a monster defensively. With her on the floor, New York has a +30 net rating and an 86 defensive rating—which would lead the league by 8 points. Without her, they post a 103.7 DRtg, which ranks 10th, just ahead of Dallas.

On one hand, you’d expect Jonquel’s return to restore the Liberty to title-favorite status. But the losses without her matter. They looked like a lock for a top-two seed; now they’re in danger of finishing fourth or fifth. It’s also concerning how much they struggled without her. She’s not someone who can be ridden for 38 minutes a night in the playoffs—she tends to get tired, understandably so.

The Liberty could use another center they can trust in the playoffs—but I’m not sure who that is.

Another development: Breanna Stewart’s shooting. Stewie is still a beast—likely the third-best player in the league—but over the past two years, she’s completely lost her three-point shot. She was a 36.6% shooter for the first seven years of her career, dropped to 29.5% last year, and is now shooting just 20.7% from three.

That’s not a big deal in the regular season—this team is still a wagon with JJ and Stewie—but it hurt them in the playoffs last year and could again this year.

Still, I’m nitpicking. If Jonquel’s healthy, this is a top-two team and arguably the favorite to win it all.

Atlanta Dream — Net Rating: +6.6

Atlanta has probably been the most surprising team this year outside of Golden State. Their preseason win total was around 22.5 and they’re pacing for 28 wins.

What’s interesting is that the two most obvious paths to a leap haven’t happened. Rhyne Howard hasn’t taken a step forward—she’s scoring less on worse true shooting, and her 3P% has now dipped below 30%. Brittney Griner, their big offseason addition, is having by far her worst WNBA season, and often doesn’t close games.

So how are they this good?

Allisha Gray has turned into a legit star—second in the league in win shares and improved across the board. Naz Hillmon might be the most impactful bench player in the league; Atlanta is +20.6 points per 100 possessions better when she’s on the floor. Head coach Karl Smesko has been as advertised—this team is top two in 3PA and ranks third in offensive rating.

The question I keep asking WNBA bettors is: Can this team win at a high level in the playoffs? Right now, I lean no. If Howard had made a leap or Griner was dominant, I’d feel differently. As it stands, they feel like a very good regular season team that likely won’t do much in the postseason.

Phoenix Mercury — Net Rating: +6.3

My beloved Mercury.

I’m biased, full disclosure—I bet them to win it all in the preseason, and multiple times since. But Phoenix being +6.3 in net rating is wildly impressive given how injured they’ve been. Kahleah Copper has only played six games, Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally have missed time, and they’ve still been this good.

Thomas is the second most likely MVP winner behind Collier and has somehow been better than she was in 2023. There were questions about how she’d fit in a new system—turns out she’s just awesome everywhere.

The other big question: depth. Outside of the big three (Copper, Thomas, Sabally), the roster was full of question marks—journeywomen and rookies. But the front office nailed it. Whitcomb, Akoa-Makani, Held, Laksa, and Westbeld have all exceeded expectations. Now they’ve added DeWanna Bonner, and suddenly this team is deep.

That said, they’re still the biggest unknown in the league. Thomas, Copper, and Sabally have only played 78 minutes together—they’re +11 in those minutes. With Bonner added, the ceiling is even higher.

I (obviously) think this team can win the title. They have high-level talent, solid depth, and now it’s just about building chemistry in the second half.

Indiana Fever — Net Rating: +5.0

If you told Indiana they’d be +5.0 in net rating after 19 games, they’d probably take it. But this season has still felt brutal. They’re 9–10, barely in a playoff spot, and Caitlin Clark has only played in 10 games.

More concerning than her availability has been her performance. The market still has her second in MVP odds (wrongly). Statistically, she’s been worse than her rookie year—fewer points, more turnovers, worse efficiency. The Fever have barely been better with her on the floor.

That said, I’m not drawing conclusions yet. She started strong despite a leg injury, and things worsened as those injuries lingered. The All-Star break should help.

What’s maybe more alarming: every offseason addition has flopped. Bonner left the team and was a total zero. Natasha Howard has been fine, but just a role player. Sophie Cunningham can’t hit a shot.

The good news: Aliyah Boston has been awesome. Her scoring and TS% (62%) are both up, and she’s been much better defensively. Lexie Hull has also emerged as a solid starter.

Even better: Indiana’s defense is up to 5th (from 11th last year). But they’re still much worse defensively with Clark on the floor.

I debated including Indiana in the championship equity group. They’re close. But barring a big leap in chemistry and consistency, I think they’re a tier below the real title threats, especially with having an up hill battle to homecourt.

Seattle Storm — Net Rating: +3.1

Seattle has mostly met expectations, with a few confusing losses—most recently blowing a double-digit lead to Connecticut, the league’s worst team.

The biggest disappointment has been Ezi Magbegor. She’s scoring four fewer points per game despite the departure of Loyd, last year’s leading scorer. She’s shooting 56% from the line (career 75%) and has completely stopped shooting threes. She was supposed to take a step; instead, she’s regressed.

On the bright side, Gabby Williams has been amazing—her best year in the W. She leads the league in steals and ranks fourth in defensive win shares. Skylar Diggins-Smith has been solid, and Nneka Ogwumike continues to be one of the leagues most consistent superstars despite being 34.

Seattle is right in the same bucket as Atlanta for me. They’re really good, and have shown they can beat any team in the league. But I still am unsure if they truly can win at the highest levels. Although the offense has been better then expected, I don’t think it can get to the level of Minn/Phx/NYL/Ind. I do think they could take a jump on D and be better in the back half of this season.

Golden State Valkyries — Net Rating: +2.3

Golden State has been one of the most shocking teams in any sport I’ve seen. Their win total opened at 14.5, got steamed down to 8.5, and they already have 10 wins.

It all starts with head coach Natalie Nakase, who’s been phenomenal. They’ve survived losing the most talent in the league to EuroCup—four rotation players—and barely missed a beat.

They’re currently #2 in defense, and it’s real. They’ve completely shut down the rim—allowing just 17.8% of shots in the restricted area. League average is 26.3%. They force teams into middies and tough floaters, and it’s led to them being 2nd in defensive EFG%, despite opponents shooting league-average from three.

On offense, they’ve developed talent out of thin air. Kayla Thornton is 32, averaged double figures just once in her career, and now she’s putting up 15–7 on reasonable efficiency. Veronica Burton, previously averaging 2.7 PPG and 2 assists, is now putting up 11 and 5.3.

I won’t pretend to know where this goes from here. But if they add one true offensive star next season, this team is incredibly well set up. Also, shoutout to the home crowd—you can hear how legit it is on every broadcast.

Las Vegas Aces — Net Rating: -2.2

If Golden State has been the biggest surprise in a good way, Las Vegas is the opposite.

They came into the season as contenders. Now? Out of a playoff spot.

Despite having tons of stars, New York and Pheonix have been able to find under the radar depth to fill out their roster, Vegas has failed in that entirely, and this season with no Plum and Chelsea Gray no longer being a star, it has really hurt them.

A’ja Wilson is still great—likely the second-best player in the league—but even she’s seen a drop: -6 points, -3 rebounds, -4% TS. Chelsea Gray never fully gotten back to the level before her Finals foot injury two years ago.

But the killer? Jewell Loyd. I said before the season that she needed to embrace a star role player mindset for this to work. Instead, she’s been a disaster. Inefficient, bad defense, and playing under 30 minutes despite the Aces’ lack of options.

Vegas now enters the back half of the season needing to convince A’ja that this core is still worth sticking with. Right now, their championship window looks closed.

Washington Mystics — Net Rating: -2.4

For a team with a negative net rating, this season has been a massive win.

The huge story for this team is both of their rookies are legit studs. I was skeptical that Sonia Citron was going to be great, she had a lack of ball handling juice for the third overall pick. Turns out I’m an idiot and if your Sonia Citron you don’t need to dribble the ball to be a dog. She’s averaging 14.5ppg on a ridiculous 60.5% TS. She’s one of those players that every time the ball toucher he hand, she does something good, even if its just another swing pass to an open player.

Kiki Iriafen has also been fantastic. She’s putting up 12 and 8, getting to the line 4 times a game, and has real upside. Her All-Star nod was questionable, but the talent is obvious. A high-upside 4 is a big deal in this league.

Even better, Shakira Austin is back after missing most of the past two years. She’s huge, moves well, and is aggressive—sometimes too aggressive—but at just 24, there’s legit upside if she can focus more on defense and pick her spots offensively.

Only negative: Aliyah Edwards has completely fallen out of the rotation post-injury, which is a bit confusing. With Kiki and Shakira ahead of her, she could be a trade candidate.

The second half will come down to direction. Do they try to make a push? Or embrace the tank and get another pick? Either way, this season’s already a success.

Dallas Wings — Net Rating: -4.8

Please, for the love of god—shoot this team to the moon.

Surrounding Paige Bueckers with this roster was always going to be a disaster, and it has been. The only silver lining: they traded NaLyssa Smith for a first, which was a fantastic deal.

Now? Trade Arike.

The good news is Paige has been everything you could hope for: 18 PPG, 5.4 assists, just 2.2 turnovers. She’s a baller and might be the best young guard in the league. Aziaha James has also shown real flashes and has upside.

The second half should be all about Paige, Aziaha, and lots of losses. Let her cook, and get another high pick.

Los Angeles Sparks — Net Rating: -6.5

Outside of Vegas, the Sparks might be the league’s most disappointing team. They had a similar win total to Atlanta in the preseason and have completely collapsed.

Kelsey Plum has been great—20 PPG, 5.6 assists on solid efficiency. Dearica Hamby has been about the same as last year statistically. But the defense is a disaster, ranking second-worst in the league—and Hamby is a big part of that.

Rickea Jackson has regressed after a strong rookie year—scoring less and way less efficiently.

This is year one of the Plum era. They should move on from Hamby, get assets, and focus on Jackson and Cameron Brink (when healthy). That’s the future.

Chicago Sky — Net Rating: -9.2

Shoutout Chennedy Carter for keeping this roster respectable last year. But this season? It’s bad.

The only bright spot: Angel Reese has been much better lately. Her rebounding is back to historic levels, and she’s scoring 17.5 PPG over her last 7 games. Her efficiency has improved—but that’s from a low starting point, so it’s still not good overall.

Sloot’s injury really hurt them. The guard play is abysmal, and it’s hard to judge what Angel could be in a competent offense.

This team won’t make the playoffs. They need to tank for a top pick and overhaul the backcourt this offseason.

Connecticut Sun — Net Rating: -20.9

Not much to say. They’ve been at least 17-point underdogs in their last six games. On the bright side, they’re in line for some great draft picks as they challenge for worst team in WNBA history.

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