NFL Week 1 survivor picks: Fading Flacco and the Jets

We’re back, baby.

I’ve brought my long-running survivor picks column to a new home this year, coming to you live – OK, not live, but live-ish – all season on The Hammer Betting Network.

For those of you who are new to this column, welcome. Based on a long process of trial and error, there are two self-imposed rules I aim to follow when it comes to making my weekly selections: 

• Avoid divisional games
• Don’t save teams for future use. 

That being said, every rule has its exceptions, and they are meant to be broken, right?

Saving teams is not a good idea in theory – you can’t prepare for Week 12 if you don’t make Week 12 – but there are obvious exceptions here. Circa’s survivor contest offers an extra one-million dollars to anyone who wins the pool without using either of last year’s Super Bowl participants – the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. They also treat American Thanksgiving as two separate weeks, meaning you need to have a team available to select from the Thursday slate. The same is true of the Christmas Day slate. So saving teams is a requirement in certain situations. Make sure you know your pool’s rules inside and out before the season starts.

Secondly, the reason I avoid divisional games is partly because I’ve been burned several times before, and partly because the familiarity between teams tends to breed closer games. I still have nightmares from the Oakland Raiders’ upset of the Denver Broncos in 2008 as 8.5-point underdogs, when my dad and I were mere weeks away from a massive payout. In vintage Smoking Jay fashion, Jay Cutler crumbled, Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas ran wild, and JaMarcus Russell threw the game’s lone touchdown in a 31-10 Raiders win that was never particularly close.

You might also remember the Indianapolis Colts losing as 7.5-point favorites to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 of 2020. Gardner Minshew’s three touchdowns led the Jags to a 27-20 upset over Philip Rivers and the Colts, despite posting 200 fewer yards of offense.

These are just two of the many examples to chose from that have me virtually swearing off divisional games in survivor pools, because hell hath no fury like a divisional underdog. It’s also why you won’t see me anywhere near the Colts this week against the Houston Texans.

Speaking of Week 1, let’s dive right in.

Week 1 confidence ranking

For those new to this column, each week I rank my pick from every game, and assign each pick a confidence ranking (CR) out of 10. 

Top pick: Baltimore Ravens

The 2021 season was a write-off for the Ravens. The injury bug hit them hard in the preseason – losing Marcus Peters, JK Dobbins, and Gus Edwards for the entire year – and went on to infect an overwhelming chunk of the roster as the weeks progressed. In the end, 22 players spent time on injured reserve, with another 10 missing time despite avoiding IR. 

Healthy once again *knocks on wood profusely* the Ravens begin the 2022 season as AFC North favorites, and for good reason. This was an already strong roster that only got better over the offseason, with the the secondary and offensive line especially improved. The latter will make life easier on dynamic quarterback Lamar Jackson, while the former will present a daunting test for New York Jets quarterback Joe Flacco, who was confirmed the starter on Wednesday as Zach Wilson continues to rehab his knee injury. 

There’s been some hype surrounding the Jets following a busy offseason, but there is still a considerable gulf in class between these two rosters – a top-10 unit in Baltimore against a bottom-seven group in New York – and the Jets’ weaknesses will only be amplified with Flacco under center. There will also be growing pains associated with their inexperience at the skill positions – something a very experienced Baltimore defense will be able to take advantage of.

Head coach John Harbaugh also provides a wealth of experience, and his Ravens teams have typically been fast starters. They were upset in overtime in Week 1 by the Las Vegas Raiders last season on Monday Night Football, but still stormed out to a 5-1 start before being derailed by injuries. In the three previous Week 1s they dismantled the Cleveland Browns 38-6 as 7.5-point favorites in 2020, hammered the Miami Dolphins 59-10 as 7-point road favorites in 2019, and crushed the Buffalo Bills 47-3 as 7.5-point favorites in 2018. How much do these results matter for this game against the Jets? Almost zero. That being said, it goes to show how prepared Harbaugh typically has this team coming out of camp.

Now with a healthy and improved roster, and a backup quarterback starting for yet another beatable Week 1 opponent, we can take the Ravens here to begin the season on the right note and get us through to Week 2 with our survivor hopes intact.

Avoid: Indianapolis Colts

You didn’t think I’d have a whole preamble about not picking divisional games, and then NOT stick the Colts in here, did you?

A lot went wrong for the Colts in 2021, but their games against the Houston Texans weren’t part of that. They beat their AFC South rivals 31-0 in Houston and 31-3 in Indianapolis - a pair of games that were never competitive. I’m still high on the Colts this season, but the Texans will be improved as well. The secondary has transitioned from a weakness to a strength, they have a strong group of edge rushers, and the skill positions are flying a bit under the radar. Davis Mills flashed signs of competency last season and we could see him take another step forward.

We saw the Texans play some really good football down the stretch last season, winning two of their last four games, losing narrowly (28-25) to the AFC South champion Tennessee Titans in the finale – a game the Titans needed to win to try and secure a first-round bye.

There’s certainly some positive momentum fueling this Texans group, with a lot more optimism and fewer distractions surrounding the organization now than a year ago at this time. There’s a lot to like about the Colts heading into the 2022 season, but this isn’t as straightforward an opening game as it may appear on paper. With better options out there, leave this one alone and let’s get through to Week 2 hopefully without much of a sweat.

Other notes

The San Francisco 49ers are a legitimate Week 1 option as well, and I wouldn’t blame you to pivoting here. They’re a big teaser leg for me this week and I do feel good about them leaving Chicago with a win. Pitting one of the league best, and almost certainly deepest, defensive lines against the league’s worst offensive line in the Chicago Bears is going to make for a nightmare afternoon for Justin Fields, and will ultimately alleviate the pressure placed on Trey Lance and this offense. We’ll likely see some short fields and a situation where 17 points could probably be enough for San Francisco to win this one. 

The Niners also have a very difficult schedule this season – six against the NFC West and four against the AFC West and NFC South (Falcons and Panthers both on the road) – so there won’t be many opportunities to pick them as this season goes on, but I’d prefer to see the early returns from this offense before giving them the nudge over the Ravens.

The Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, and Miami Dolphins are obvious stay-aways for me in Week 1 divisional games, and I want absolutely nothing to do with the Tennessee Titans here. I need to see what the Titans are going to look like following a bit of an offseason overhaul before putting an ounce of confidence in them. New York Giants +6 is a sizeable bet for me this week, and I’ve sprinkled that moneyline as well.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are the only other realistic options for me. The Chiefs were a popular bet early in the week, driving this line from -3.5 early to -6 at some shops. I bought back on the Arizona Cardinals at -6, and while it’s not a play I feel particularly great about given their concerns in the secondary, it was too high a number for me to pass up here on a Cards team that has looked like world-beaters early in the past two seasons before falling apart over the second half.

As for the Eagles, my hesitancy has a lot more to do with them than it does the Detroit Lions. I am not nearly as high on Jalen Hurts and this Philadelphia team as the market is, but I’m also considerably lower on Detroit. The preseason hype, fueled by their appearance on Hard Knocks, seems to have catapulted the Lions to playoff contender status and it’s been highly entertaining watching their win total climb and playoff odds shorten. I have continued to buy in against the movement here. This is still Jared Goff under center and the secondary is really week – don’t pretend you didn’t see Goff shred the unit repeatedly in training camp, sending defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn into orbit. Can Hurts take advantage? He has the weapons, but I’m highly skeptical.

To close, I will say this is one of the toughest Week 1s I can remember in survivor. The Zach Wilson injury alleviated some of my concerns, but before that it was a struggle to have supreme confidence in anyone. It’s going to be really nice to have these games played for many reasons, but getting some questions answered about a lot of these teams is going to be particularly important.