Well, Week 1 didn’t exactly go as planned with my best bets. I finished 2-3 in last week’s article, hitting the UNDER in the Patriots and Dolphins game as well as the OVER with Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards, but lost Bengals -6.5 and Cardinals +6, while Justin Fields failed to reach his rushing total.
But hey, another week, another attempt at a 5-0 sweep.
I already gave you my moneyline upset pick of the week here, and I gave out my best spread bet for every single game over at BetSided, but this article will serve as my top five bets.
Spreads, totals, moneylines, and props are all eligible, so let’s dive into my favorite wagers for Sunday’s action.
Panthers vs. Giants OVER 43.5 (-110)
You might have looked at last week’s Giants vs. Titans game and assumed it was a defensive battle, but you’d be surprised to find out that New York averaged the third most yards per play amongst all teams in opening week action.
At 6.8 yards per play, only the Chiefs and Bills averaged more offense in Week 1.
If they can keep up that pace while limiting their turnovers, they’re going to score points in Week 2.
The Panthers, on the other hand, didn’t quite put up as strong of a performance in Week 1 against the Browns, only averaging 5.2 yards per play, but let’s not forget that Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL. Now, they’ll get to face a much weaker Giants defense, and I expect them to produce some offense and contribute to this OVER.
Colts -3.5 vs. Jaguars (-110)
The Colts were between 7.5-point to 8.5-point favorites against the Texans in Week 1, and now they’re just 3.5-point favorites against the Jaguars. Are we sure that Jacksonville is 4-to-5 points better than the Texans? I certainly don’t think so.
Let’s also remember that despite the rare tie, the Colts dominated Houston in the opening week. They averaged 5.7 yards per play, while limiting the Texans to 4.4 yards per play. Untimely turnovers and the inability to score in the red zone cost them, but I don’t expect those same mistakes to pop up again in Week 2.
I know a lot of people were high on the Jaguars entering the season, but I don’t see why. I’m not impressed by Trevor Lawrence. He had an awful rookie campaign, and he only completed 24-of-42 passes in the opening week, throwing for a touchdown and an interception.
The Colts are the much more complete team here, and I expect them to run away with this one.
Cordarrelle Patterson UNDER 50.5 rushing yards (-114)
This number is a complete overreaction to Cordarrelle Patterson’s Week 1 performance where he rushed for 120 yards against the Saints. Last season with the Falcons, Patterson only averaged 38.6 rushing yards per game, so I expect a regression to the mean sooner rather than later.
The Falcons will also be going up against the Rams, who will expose the weakness of their offense, which is the interior of their offensive line. Aaron Donald will wreak havoc in this game, leaving few lanes between the tackles for Patterson to run.
Also, with the point spread set at 10.5 points in favor of the Rams, I expect the game script to shift quickly for Atlanta. The Falcons likely won’t be running the ball much, especially in the second half.
Derek Carr OVER 285.5 passing yards (-125)
I invested a lot of stock this offseason in Derek Carr, so I hope he will deliver for me against an Arizona Cardinals team that allowed the second most yards per pass attempt in Week 1. They allowed Patrick Mahomes to average 9.2 yards per throw, so Carr SHOULD have a field day in the Raiders home opener.
He threw for 295 passing yards against the Chargers in Week 1, while averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt which ranks ninth heading into the game.
Davante Adams made his presence known early and often, and I expect similar results on Sunday.
Bears vs. Packers UNDER 41.5 (-110)
I managed to lock in this bet at 44 when the lines were first released, but I think it still might be worth a sprinkle at 41.5.
All offseason I was concerned about who Aaron Rodgers would be throwing the ball to in the Packers offense with Davante Adams now in Las Vegas, and those fears were realized in Week 1 against the Vikings. He was visibly frustrated with his wideouts all game, and only managed to put up seven points against Minnesota.
Meanwhile, the Bears were the worst offense in all of football in the opening week’s action. Sure, some of that can be blamed on the rain, but they averaged a measly 3.6 yards per play. No offensive line, no receivers, and an inexperienced Justin Fields is a recipe for disaster.
I think we’ll see a defensive slugfest on Sunday night.