We got back on track last week with my top five plays, going 3-2 for +0.91 units. Unfortunately, that still leaves us in the red for the season at 7-8 (-1.49).
Nevertheless, we have the chance to get back in the green this week!
As always, this article will have my five very best bets for the week, including all types of bets (spreads, totals, and props). Let’s dive into my plays for NFL Week 4.
Cowboys -3 (-110) vs. Commanders
Before the season started, I made a call that the Commanders would be a bottom-five team and I even bet on them to have the worst record in the NFL. I think we’re well on our way for that prediction being correct.
In the first three weeks, the Commanders have played the Jaguars, Lions, and Eagles. Not exactly elite competition. Despite that, they rank 29th in yards per play and 28th in opponent yards per play. This team STINKS!!
The Cowboys, by comparison, rank 18th in yards per play with Cooper Rush as their QB.
Then there’s their defense, which ranks 8th in opponent yards per play, while their pass rush is NASTY.
Washington is allowing a sack on 10.34% of Carson Wentz drop backs, and Dallas leads the NFL in getting a sack on 11.5% of opponent drop backs. The Cowboys pass rush is going to eat well on Sunday.
I think Dallas can win this game handedly
Derrick Henry UNDER 72.5 rushing yards (-114)
Sportsbooks are starting to adjust for Derrick Henry’s regression, but I don’t think they’ve adjusted enough quite yet.
Henry is averaging only 64 yards per game, and a measly 3.6 yards per rush. That’s 0.7 fewer yards per rush compared to last season, and 1.8 fewer yards per rush compared to 2020. Regression is here for the 28-year old.
Things are only going to get worse for him this week, as he and the Titans are set to face the best run defense in the NFL. The Colts are allowing teams to gain only 2.6 yards per carry, so I find it hard to believe Henry will be able to find lanes to run against them on Sunday.
Bears +3 (-115) vs. Giants
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I actually love the Bears to cover the spread this week against the Giants.
Chicago has refused to throw the ball, but that might actually be a good thing in this situation. If the Bears just stick to the same gameplan as they have for the first three weeks, they should hold an advantage over the Giants, who are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Chicago is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and New York is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, which ranks 28th in the NFL.
Everyone is making fun of the Bears offense, and for good reason, but the Giants offense is only gaining 0.1 more yards per play than the Bears. Both offensive lines stink. Taking the points follows my general rule of “when two terrible teams play against each other, take the side getting points.” I think they can at least keep it close, so that's exactly what I'll do.
Jared Goff OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-114)
This seems like a high number, considering Jared Goff is averaging just 249.3 passing yards per game so far this season, but I think he can roast this Seahawks secondary.
Heading into Sunday, Seattle ranks last in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt, allowing an average of 8.4 yards per throw. It allowed Marcus Mariota, of all people, to average 10.4 yards per pass against them last week. That’s a bad sign for the Seahawks.
Let’s fade that secondary until further notice.
Chiefs (-102) vs. Buccaneers
Did you know that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank 27th in the NFL in yards per play? That’s fewer yards per play than teams like the Giants, Jets, and Bears.
I have no idea how they’re 1-point favorites to the Chiefs, who rank fourth in yards per play this season. Don’t let last week’s game against the Colts fool you, Kansas City is still a very good football team.
Also, I gave the Chiefs defense a lot of flack this offseason, but it's about time I start to give them credit. They rank fifth in opponent yards per play, right below the Buccaneers defense who ranks fourth. The public assumption is that the Buccaneers defense is leagues above the Chiefs defense, but that’s not true through the first three weeks of the season.
I’m all over the Chiefs in this marquee matchup.
Be sure to check the rest of my work over at BetSided ahead of Sunday’s NFL slate.