My upset picks have been fantastic this season, but my top five bets haven’t quite been as sharp.
Two straight 2-3 weeks puts me at 4-6 (-2.40 units) on the season, but that’s okay, we have plenty of football left. Last week, we cashed on Cordarrelle Patterson UNDER 50.5 rushing yards, and the UNDER 41.5 in the Sunday Night Football game between the Bears and Packers.
Spread, totals, moneyline, and props are all eligible in this article. So, without further delay, here are my five favorite wagers for NFL Week 3.
Bills -5.5 (-105) vs. Dolphins
Sure, the Dolphins' comeback victory over the Ravens in Week 2 was impressive, but this team has plenty of red flags, especially on defense. Miami ranks dead last in the NFL in opponent yards per play, allowing an average of 6.9. That’s 0.3 yards worse than the next worst team.
Those numbers are mainly due to their secondary. They’re allowing 8.7 yards per opponent pass attempt, which is 0.7 worse than the next worst team.
Now, they have to welcome Josh Allen and the Bills' potent offense. A fantastic passing attack against a porous defense is not a good recipe for success for Miami.
Offensively, Miami is still struggling to run the ball, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Their pass attack can only carry them so far.
The Bills will continue to look unstoppable in Week 3.
Miles Sanders OVER 63.5 rushing yards (-114)
The Washington Commanders have not been able to stop the run through the first two weeks of the NFL season. Heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Eagles, the Commanders are allowing an average of 7.5 yards per carry on defense. The Jaguars racked up 6.8 yards per carry against them in Week 1, and then the Lions averaged 8.0 yards per carry against them in Week 2.
That means we should target Eagles running back, Miles Sanders, to have a big game against them.
Sanders has averaged 5.9 yards per carry through the first two weeks, and the Eagles have the fourth-highest rushing play percentage in the NFL at 52.14%. Sanders should get plenty of attempts, and I expect him to soar over this total.
Jaguars vs. Chargers OVER 47.5 (-105)
I’ve bet on the OVER in each of the Chargers' first two games this season, and it failed to hit both times. Well, hopefully the third time’s the charm on Sunday.
Both offenses have performed relatively well through the first two weeks. The Jaguars are averaging 5.5 yards per play, and the Chargers are right behind them, averaging 5.4 yards per play. They are both finding success in the red zone as well, scoring a touchdown on 57.14% and 62.5% of red zone trips, respectively.
The most promising stat for OVER bettors, is that both offensive lines have been strong when it comes to pass protection. They rank second and third in QB sacked percentage, so Lawrence and Herbert should have plenty of time to find their open receivers.
Let’s sit back and root for some points in this AFC showdown.
Justin Fields UNDER 15.5 Completions (-102)
The Chicago Bears aren’t even attempting to throw the ball this season. They are only throwing the ball on 34.02% of plays, which is the lowest mark in the NFL by over 6%. That’s insane.
Justin Fields hasn’t even completed 16 passes yet this season, and now his completion total is set at 15.5 for a single game? How? He recorded only eight completions in Week 1 against the 49ers, and then just seven completions in Week 2 against the Packers.
As a cherry on top, the Houston Texans have the fourth lowest opponent completion percentage through the first two weeks, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 56.79% of throws. If those numbers hold up, Fields would have to throw almost 30 times on Sunday to go over his completion number of 15.5. Fat chance.
Packers (-102) vs. Buccaneers
It’s easy to get caught up in the narrative that it’s hard to bet against Tom Brady, but let’s just remember that this Buccaneers team has failed to score a touchdown in the first half through the first two weeks of the season.
Now, to make matters worse, Mike Evans is suspended, while Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are dealing with injuries that kept them out of practice all week. Tampa Bay could potentially lean on its running game against the Packers on Sunday, but are only averaging a measly 3.6 yards per carry this season, which ranks 26th in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers is dealing with some wide receiver issues of his own, but it’s an issue that will likely only improve as the year goes on. His young receiving core just needs time to get used to the speed of the NFL game.
I think the wrong team is favored in this NFC showdown, so I’ll back the Packers on the moneyline.
Be sure to check the rest of my work over at BetSided ahead of Sunday’s NFL slate.