Three up, three down. It’s been a perfect first inning for my survivor column this season, but we have a long, long way to go.
Weirdly, it doesn’t feel like we have that long to go considering just 25% of the initial field has survived to Week 4 in Circa Survivor, with as many as 85% of entries done in some pools across the continent. That being said, 1,550 entries make up that 25%, so the road ahead is still an exhausting one.
While Week 4 isn’t as much of a toss-up as Week 3 was in terms of an abundance of short spreads, it does present its own unique challenges. The first is whether or not to use the assumed “safest” pick in the Green Bay Packers – 9.5-point favorites against the presumably Mac Jones-less New England Patriots at Lambeau. The second is how to navigate a minefield of injuries across the NFL – more on that in the pick rankings below.
The Packers predicament
We’ll start at Lambeau, where the Packers are comfortably the week’s biggest favorites with an implied winning percentage north of 80% against the Patriots. In terms of on-field reasons, there are very few with validity to be scared off of Green Bay this week. The Packers are relatively healthy and will in all likelihood be facing 36-year-old journeyman Brian Hoyer, who last started an NFL game in October 2020. In fact, Hoyer has started just three games in the last four seasons (2018-2021), losing all three. Dating back even further, Hoyer has lost 12 consecutive starts and is 1-13 as a starter since 2016, with the lone win a 17-14 home victory over the Detroit Lions while with the Chicago Bears in 2016.
The Packers will, in all likelihood, win this football game. So what’s the argument against setting it, forgetting it, and looking ahead to Week 5? Well, the reality is we can expect the Packers to have close to 50% ownership this week. Taking a team with an ownership percentage that high in a given week is unquestionably -EV. The goal here is to be the lone survivor to make it through to the end of the season, not to split the pool with 20 other entrants. It’s important to differentiate from the pack when possible, and the higher the ownership, the more important that becomes. Now, if you’re reading this and are in a smaller (under 1000 people) home league, these ownership issues hold a lot less weight. In that case, go ahead with the Packers.
We must also be mindful of Green Bay’s future value, which only a handful of teams offer more of. The Packers still play home games against the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions, while facing the New York Giants in London. They also have easier road games against the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears. The opportunities to use the Packers going forward are plentiful, meaning there’s even more reason to go against the grain this week.
The question is, who do we go against the grain with? Below are my two favorite options, plus two to avoid.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans)
No, I’m not crazy. I really don’t think so, at least. It’s definitely not out of the question, though.
It’s been a very strange start to the season for Matt Ryan and this Colts offense, but things are only going to get better. They were slow out of the gates in Week 1 before storming back against the Houston Texans in a game they should have won, then had to play without their top-two receivers in Week 2, preventing them from getting into any sort of rhythm. They beat the Kansas City Chiefs last week, but absolutely shouldn’t have – the boxscore was not pretty.
So why should we be picking them? Getting the full compliment of weapons back on offense last week was obviously big, and there’s too much talent there for this group not to hit its stride sooner than later. Jonathan Taylor – a big concern for me yesterday after popping up on the injury report – was back at practice on Thursday, while Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce will get to play in back-to-back games together for the first time… ever. Ryan has struggled, but the conditions haven’t been kind to him. That changes this week against a miserable Titans defense that ranks 30th in EPA/play.
I couldn’t be much lower on the Titans, who were also insanely lucky to win last week. They just aren’t a good football team. The offense has limited skill at wide receiver, an ageing running back, an injury-ravaged offensive line, and a turnover-prone quarterback incapable of performing under less-than-ideal conditions. And the defense? It’s bad. Very bad.
I had to hit pause here due to Indianapolis’ Wednesday injury report, but with Taylor, Stephon Gilmore, Ryan Kelly, and Yannick Ngakoue all back at practice – and Shaq Leonard possibly returning – it’s all systems go for me on the Colts this week.
Also working in our favor here is the fact that almost no one will be picking Indianapolis this week, given how its looked through three weeks. But for as much as the Colts have struggled, the Titans have been even worse, and this is a prime get-right spot for Indy at home in Week 4.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
A key to survivor pools, at the risk of stating the obvious, is to pick against bad teams. So why would you want to pick against a Jaguars team playing good football?
Well, the Jaguars definitely appear to be playing good football, but how much do we really know about this team? They lost to a terrible Washington Commanders squad in Week 1, and everyone seems to be ignoring that now because they’ve since gone and beat the Colts and Chargers. Sure, but let’s look at those wins through an objective lens here. They beat the Colts without Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Shaq Leonard. Matt Ryan’s top receivers in that game were Ashton Dulin – a fourth-year receiver out of Malone University (don’t even pretend you know where the fuck that is) – and running back Nyheim Hines. Then they beat the Chargers who were without Keenan Allen, Corey Linsley, and J.C. Jackson, while Justin Herbert played with a needle lodged into his obliterated rib cartilage. And to make matters worse, star left tackle Rashawn Slater and defensive end Joey Bosa both left the game with serious injuries. The Chargers were a shell of themselves, and the Colts weren’t much better off. So how good is this Jaguars team, really?
What’s important for our purposes here is that seeing is believing. We saw the Jaguars upset the Colts in Week 2 and Chargers in Week 3, which is enough for people to at least think they’re good, and thus should be enough to have many approach this game with trepidation. The Eagles won’t be an unpopular pick, but they definitely won’t be the most popular.
We’re giving up some future value by taking the Eagles now, but I don’t mind considering they’re a comfortable alternative to the Packers – who also hold considerable future value – at likely a significantly lower ownership rate.
The Eagles are healthy – Darius Slay, DeVonta Smith, Landon Dickerson, Milton Williams, and Miles Sanders all returned to practice on Thursday – and primed to move to 4-0 against a Jaguars team playing their third road game in four weeks, coming off a cross-country trip.
Avoid: Los Angeles Chargers (@ Houston Texans)
Just don’t do it. Rashawn Slater is out for the year, Joey Bosa is on injured reserve, and Justin Herbert is still dealing with a significant rib injury. Corey Linsley is truly questionable after missing last week – who’s keeping Herbert upright here? Keenan Allen and J.C. Jackson are trending towards returning, but at what level of effectiveness?
The Texans have an underrated defense, headlined by a strong front seven. Davis Mills’ home-road splits are well-documented – he loves playing in Houston, if you haven’t heard. They’ve been in all three games down to the final seconds and are a couple plays away from being 2-1 this season. But they’re not; they’re 0-2-1 and will be a popular team to pick against this week because of it.
I’ve already had two people message me this week saying “there’s no way the Chargers lose three in a row.” Whatever you do, please don’t fall into that mindset.
Given the state of the Chargers’ roster, tread lightly.
Avoid: Detroit Lions (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
Don’t be surprised to see the Lions as a popular “contrarian” pick this week. As people search for alternatives to the Packers, Detroit will be a trendy pick at home to the lowly Seahawks. I had them circled as well on my lookahead but am no longer considering them an option in Week 4.
That’s not an indictment on the Lions, but rather on their injury report, much like my reasons for abstaining from the Chargers. The biggest concern comes at the skill positions, where Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift are both unlikely to play this week. The Lions don’t have the depth to stomach losing their top two offensive playmakers, and to make matters worse, DJ Chark missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. If he’s unable to go, it could leave the Lions with Josh Reynolds – also questionable but likely to play – and Kalif Raymond as their top-two receivers. Add in injuries to guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow, and this offense suddenly looks pretty unattractive. Against a weak Seahawks defense maybe they’ll have enough to get by, but we’ve seen how ugly things can get for Jared Goff when he’s thrust into difficult situations.
On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks have been very respectable on offense, which is largely flying under the radar. Geno Smith has been in command, Seattle has good weapons out wide, and rank 12th in EPA/play through three weeks. They can build on that against a Lions defense that ranks 28th in EPA/play and just lost starting safety Tracy Walker for the season.
My preference is to steer clear of the trendy Lions and hope bad Goff shows up to take a sizeable chunk of the remaining survivor entries with him.