Every week during the NFL season I’ll be here with The Hammer Betting Network giving out my favorite derivative bets. What’s a derivative bet, you ask? Traditional against the spread (ATS) plays are wagers on the full game spread or total. Anything outside of that, say a first quarter or prop bet, is considered a derivative wager. I love taking advantage of derivative angles since they’re usually predicated on segments of the game or specific narratives, and you can often find hidden value in the lines.
In Week 4, our derivative bet won in the first quarter! Daniel Jones easily eclipsed his rushing yards prop (31.5); he ran for 68. That puts our derivative bets at 3-2 here at the Hammer Network! I have more angles I like today so let’s get to it!!
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the best first quarter and first half teams through the first four weeks of the NFL season. Ranked as the second-highest scoring team in the 1st quarter (8.5 ppg) and the second-highest scoring team in the 1st half (18 ppg), the Chiefs’ offense typically explodes early. The Las Vegas Raiders aren’t all bad in the first half (13 ppg), but they typically start slower in the first 15 minutes of action, averaging a measly 4 ppg thus far.
Last week the Chiefs were shockingly good against what seemed like one of the best defenses in the NFL to start the season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers simply could not stop the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and his supporting cast were on a mission last Sunday night, scoring touchdowns on their first three opening drives and dropping 28 points in the first half on the vaunted Bucs’ defense. They cruised to a 41-31 victory.
Maintaining a lead throughout, they also ran for nearly 200 yards behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isaiah Pacheco in an exceptionally nuanced ground attack. That’s a really good sign for a Chiefs’ offense that heavily relies on Mahomes’ arm– if their run game can continue finding success, and we think it will, that only gives Andy Reid’s offense more room for creative play calling. Las Vegas’ defense has performed well against the run so far, allowing only 3.9 yards per carry to opposing defenses, but the Chiefs are a different animal. Andy Reid designs offensive schemes more uniquely than any other coach in the NFL – I don’t think that’s a hot take anymore – and the Raiders haven’t seen the speed and dynamism that KC brings on a play-to-play basis. Las Vegas has exclusively faced running attacks that rank in the bottom half of the league leading up to this contest – KC ranks at #11 with 117 rush yards per gain and we think that’ll only improve as the season goes on.
But let’s face it – it’s the Chiefs’ passing ability that should inflate their lead early. In two matchups last season, the Chiefs dropped 48 and 41 points on the Raiders and much of that was (shocker) because of Mahomes and their elite air attack. Mahomes in those 2 contests: 74% completion percentage on 74 attempts for 664 yards, 7 TDs, and no INTs. And what’s changed this year? Sure, the Chiefs don’t have Tyreek Hill anymore, but that hasn’t made much of a difference. Kansas City is still a top 10 passing attack in categories that matter, and they’ve faced above-average defenses since Week 2 (sorry Cardinals, you’re not in that group):
- Mahomes is 97/146 (66%) for 11 TDs and only 2 INTs,
- the Chiefs are 7th in yards per pass,
- 7th in passing yards per game,
- and Mahomes is only sacked on 3.29% of his dropbacks, good for 3rd best in the NFL
The Raiders beefed up their defensive line by signing Chandler Jones from the Arizona Cardinals in the offseason. But in typical fashion – he’s been terribly inconsistent throughout his 10 pro years – Jones only has four solo tackles and zero sacks through four games. In other words, he’s been a non-factor. Las Vegas is a bottom-tier defense in most major categories and most importantly, they’re not getting to the quarterback. Only the Arizona Cardinals are worse in sack percentage, and we all know what happened when KC faced the Cards in Week 1. I think this could present a similar result.
There’s a world where a vengeful Derek Carr gains margin and brings back the Raiders late, but I would bet on the Chiefs early with confidence on Monday night.
Best bets:
- Chiefs 1Q -3 (-110) at DraftKings
- Chiefs 1H -4 (-110) at DraftKings