Well, my friends, three straight weeks of going 3-2 with my best bets has officially brought us back into the black!
It was a grind, but we’re sitting at 13-12 for +0.01 units. I didn’t say we were extremely profitable, but 0.01 units is 0.01 units. Just imagine, if your unit size was 10 million dollars, you’d be up $100,000! Wow, imagine that!
Let’s try to build on that momentum with a fourth straight profitable week.
Here are my five very best bets for Week 6 action in the NFL, including spreads, totals, and player props.
AJ Dillon UNDER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Based on recent performance, I think this is a football number for AJ Dillon. He’s only averaging 49 yards per game this season, and his offensive snaps fell off a cliff last week against the Giants.
He was on the field for just 32% of snaps, and he carried the ball only six times.
The bet is also aided by the Jets being one of the best run defenses in the NFL, keeping opponents to gaining 4.0 yards per rush. I love this number, which I grabbed at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ravens -5.5 vs. Giants (-110)
It’s time to sell high on the New York Giants. Congratulations to them on being 4-1, but there are a lot of red flags surrounding this team when you dig into their numbers.
For example, their offense ranks 19th in yards per play, 26th in third down conversion rate, and 29th in yards per pass attempt. Those aren’t the numbers of a playoff team.
Their biggest strength, their run game, may not work against this Ravens defense. 27.12% of the yards gained on the Ravens comes on the ground, that’s the third lowest percentage in the NFL. If you want to attack this defense, you have to do it through the air, and that’s the area that the Giants are lacking in the most.
Finally, New York ranks 27th in the NFL in opponent yards per carry, and now the Giants have to face one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the NFL. I think the Ravens will win this one handedly.
Vikings/Dolphins OVER 45.5
It doesn't bother me that Skylar Thompson will likely be starting for the Dolphins this week. Both these teams are built to cash OVER tickets, so that’s what we’re going to bank on.
The Vikings defense ranks 26th in opponent yards per play, allowing an average of 6.0 yards per snap, while the Dolphins are even worse, allowing an average of 6.1 yards per snap.
Even more notable, they rank 29th and 30th in opponent yards per pass attempt. If their secondaries continue to give up big plays, we’ll see points add up in a hurry in this matchup.
49ers -5.5 (-110) vs. Falcons
It’s unfortunately time to fade my beloved Falcons. Their offense may be fun, but they struggle heavily against good defenses. Look at their results last week against the Buccaneers if you want to see proof. They gained only 4.3 yards per play against them, and now they have to face an even better defense in the 49ers.
Around 50% of the Falcons offensive yards gained comes on the ground, which is good for the third highest percentage in the NFL. Unluckily for them, they now have to face a San Francisco defense that allows only 3.0 yards per carry, the best mark in the league.
This 49ers defense can be attacked through the air if a team can buy their quarterback time in the pocket, but the Falcons can’t do that either. They rank 26th in QB sacked percentage, and that offensive line will now attempt to slow down a pass rush that ranks first in QB sack percentage.
It’s going to be a disaster for Atlanta on Sunday.
Bills -2.5 (-110) vs. Chiefs
There is a glaring difference in this game between the two powerhouses of the AFC; defense.
The Bills rank second in most defensive categories, including opponent yards per play (4.4). Meanwhile the Chiefs rank 12th in that statistic, giving up 5.3 yards per play.
The biggest red flag for this Chiefs defense is that they rank 30th in opponent completion percentage, allowing opposing teams to complete 69.27% of their pass attempts. If they allow Josh Allen to complete 70% of his passes, it’s going to be a long day for the Chiefs.
Even the offensive numbers favor the Bills. They lead the NFL in yards per play at 6.7, averaging 0.9 more yards per play than the Chiefs offense, which is averaging 5.8.
The Bills will win and cover in this game, and establish themselves as the team to beat in the AFC.