“Do you know how easy this is for me? Do you have any f***ing idea how easy this is?” – Will Hunting
As I stare at a prop for this Sunday’s Vikings/Bears game, I can’t get that quote from Good Will Hunting out of my head. Why is this bet so easy? How can Vegas possibly be so wrong? How can I quickly take out a second mortgage to get more down on this prop? Is it even possible to take out a second mortgage if I only rent an apartment? What if I can never afford to own a home? What is the meaning of life? Woah. Sorry, got a little carried away there. Back to football.
Kirk Cousins is a bad quarterback. Not like Baker Mayfield bad, but he’s pretty terrible. Matt Ryan-like if you will.
The Chicago Bears cannot stop the run. Like at all. Remember how helpless Trinidad and Tobago looked against the Mighty Ducks in D2? That is what it looks like each week watching the Bears try to stop opposing rushers. Through four weeks, they have allowed a league worst 183.3 rushing yards per game.
Is that bad you ask? Well, to put that number into perspective, the 2008 Detroit Lions (the 0-16 team) allowed 172.1 rushing yards per game, the highest number over the past 20 years. So, yes, I’d say it’s bad.
All this brings me to the prop I am focused on. Dalvin Cook Over 78.5 yards rushing.
Throughout his career, Cook has averaged 93 yards per game when playing at home. Aside from the Week 3 loss to the Eagles, Cook has managed at least 17 carries per game with an average of 4.6 yards per carry in those three contests. Throw in the fact that the Vikings are now 7-point favorites and I think it’s safe for one to assume that in the likely scenario where they have the lead in the second half, they will elect to put the ball in Dalvin Cook’s hands, not Kirk Cousin’s. More carries = more yards = winner winner chicken dinner.
This is where I feel obligated to point out that typically when a bettor such as myself (an idiot) feels the way about a bet that I do, Vegas wins. Also, the first prop bet I posted on here, David Montgomery Over 65.5 yards rushing against the Texans, resulted in Montgomery sustaining a significant leg injury on the second Bears’ possession, so don’t be surprised when Justin Jefferson runs into Cook on a crossing route knocking them both out of the game with concussions.
Both Caesars and BetMGM have Over 78.5 at -115, so I will be taking it now on BetMGM as I expect the line to climb to above 80 by Sunday.
TLDR: Dalvin Cook Over 78.5 yards rushing