I have no joy in writing this, but we went 0-3 on Sunday night for the first time this year. It happens, I know, but it still stings when it does. The Baltimore Ravens won the game on a last second field goal, killing our spread pick, and it was a defensive slugfest between two struggling defenses. Either way, it’s time to get back on track for Monday night, and we have a few picks that are feeling pretty damn good.
Raiders @ Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs showed who they were a week ago when they thoroughly outplayed a tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers team and Tom Brady. Mahomes was locked in, making people miss, picking up chunk plays, and flipping the ball for touchdowns - it was vintage form from No. 15.
On Monday he goes against a team that had lofty expectations heading into the season after acquiring Davante Adams, but the team has ultimately fallen short early. The Vegas Raiders and Derek Carr just haven’t been able to get going during this young season, and were the only 0-3 team in the NFL before pulling out a 32-23 victory against the lowly Denver Broncos a week ago. Suffice it to say, this team is in tough and are going to have a rough time keeping this one close over 60 minutes of football.
Kansas City has beaten the Raiders by seven-plus points in seven of their past eight matchups, and has absolutely smoked them at Arrowhead. The last time these two played in KC was a season ago, and the Chiefs obliterated the Raiders 48-9. In his eight career games, Mahomes has owned the Raiders’ defense, averaging 37.3 points, scoring over 30 in every matchup except one. I’m expecting the same on Monday night from an offense that is finding its footing at the right time. The Chiefs are hitting on 73% of their red-zone opportunities, good for fourth in the NFL, while the Raiders have one of the worst red-zone offenses in the league, hitting paydirt on just 44% of their opportunities. Points have been difficult to come by, as teams have been honing in on Davante Adams once Vegas gets within 20 yards of scoring.
On the defensive side for the Raiders, their unit is one of the worst in the red zone as well, sitting in third-last when it comes to touchdown percentage allowed. Overall, their defense ranks 20th in DVOA, and Mahomes should be able to feast once again after dropping 41 on arguably the best defense in the NFL a week ago. Be prepared to see some fireworks in this one, as the Chiefs are fifth in the league while averaging 384 yards per game; the Raiders come in ranked 13th, averaging 356 yards. However, I just don’t see Vegas keeping pace with this offense. KC will do a good job of shutting down Josh Jacobs and the rushing offense of the Raiders, coming in with a top-10 rushing defense. Vegas might stick around early, but it will be only a matter of time before Kansas City pulls away. Expect the Chiefs to cover as they have done in almost every single matchup against the Raiders in the Mahomes era. Don’t overthink this one.
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-104 at Coolbet)
In a perfect segway, the over is looking mighty appetizing here. It’s hit four times in this matchup, while these two teams have combined for 50-plus points in four of their last five clashes. Game script could play a large factor in this one, with the Raiders potentially being forced to the air while the Chiefs will likely continue to put up points at will. Both of these defenses have the ability to allow some points, too. The Raiders average 25 points allowed per game, good for ninth in the NFL, while Kansas City is right behind them with 24 points allowed per contest - 12th-worst in the league.
Offensively, a lot can be said about both of these squads. The Chiefs are seventh in the league in passing offense with an average of 267 yards per contest, and 11th in the NFL in rushing with 117 yards per contest. Kansas City has been rolling on offense when it comes to scoring points, dropping an average of 32 per game. For Mahomes’ part, he’s averaged 291 yards passing in nationally televised games, and 318 yards against the Raiders during his incredible career.
The Raiders are 13th in the NFL in passing offense, with 243 yards per contest and are 14th in rushing while picking up 113 yards per game. Carr, Adams, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs will do their part in getting this game over the number. Trust the stats and get ready for an offensive showdown come Monday night.
Bet: Over 51.5 (-110 at Bet365)