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Raiders @ Chiefs player props: Targeting low totals for Pacheco, Carlson

Daniel Carlson

The Las Vegas Raiders hit the road to take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football to close out Week 5. The game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium and features the home Chiefs as 7-point favorites. This divisional game will feature two teams trending in different directions as the 1-3 Raiders must find a way to stay competitive against this 3-1 Chiefs team. The Chiefs are coming off a very impressive win in Tampa Bay last week where they put up 438 yards of offense and 41 points.

Kansas City rushed for 189 yards against the Buccaneers, and when you give Patrick Mahomes a reliable run game, the offense really opens up. Meanwhile, the Raiders are also coming off a win against the Denver Broncos – their first of the season. After acquiring Davante Adams in the offseason this team had high expectations, and going into Kansas City is probably the worst-case scenario for a team looking to get back into the AFC West picture. This matchup has a total of 52 and should provide plenty of opportunity in the player prop market.

Best bets

To start, we’re going to turn to the Chiefs offense and a guy who is due for more opportunities. Isiah Pacheco comes into this matchup with a rushing line of 21.5 yards and regardless of whether he is the RB2 or not, this line is short. Last week he had 11 attempts which resulted in 63 yards, and with a similar game script likely tonight, his volume will be in a similar ballpark, if not greater. Pacheco averaged 5.7 yards per carry a week ago and there is a good chance the Chiefs have a lead late in the game again tonight which should provide opportunity for him.

After logging 23% of snaps a week ago I am projecting the Chiefs to up that closer to 30% this week. With that being said, this is a prop you may have to wait until the second half to see him get the opportunities we are going to need to reach that 22-plus yard territory, so please, be patient. At 21.5, I’ll gladly take my chances on Pacheco getting a solid workload at home as 7-point favorites.

Pacheco over 21.5 rushing yards (-111) 1u Bet365

On the Raiders’ side of things, I am backing kicker Daniel Carlson. Carlson is 4/4 to the over this season on his 1.5 made field goals prop. Dating back to last season, he has hit 2+ field goals in 13/16 games and should see plenty of opportunity tonight. This prop is the complete opposite of our first play, where we will need Carlson to get on the board with a field goal early, before the game flow changes. If Carlson can get a field goal opportunity on one of the Raiders’ first few drives of the first half, he will be in great shape to hit this number once again. The Raiders may not cover tonight but I do think they will keep things close for at least the first half. When placing kicking props, you are putting trust directly into the player and the potential opportunities they may see, and I am confident in both of those tonight. Daniel Carlson is a perfect 12/12 on field goal attempts this season and I feel more than confident in trusting him here at plus odds.

Carlson over 1.5 made field goals (+105) 1u BetMGM