A big congratulations to anyone backing Mackenzie Hughes (+10000) to win the Sanderson Farms Championship last weekend. It felt good to see a fellow Canadian win again on the PGA Tour, and cash some bets at the same time.
This week, the tour heads to Las Vegas for the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin. Like most other TPC courses on tour, Summerlin can produce some low scores. Thankfully, we have a much stronger field this week. I am going to break down the event and the field before offering my picks trying to build off of last week's success.
Tournament Information:
This event was first established in Las Vegas back in 1983, with the first prize purse being $750,000. This year the field will be playing for a purse of $8,000,000 and 500 Fedex Cup Points.
Over the years, this event has been played at a handful of venues throughout Las Vegas, but has now found a home at TPC Summerlin. In fact, this event is where Tiger Woods won his first event on the PGA Tour in 1996.
The Shriners Children’s Open has been a breakthrough tournament for several TOUR players, who won their first event on the PGA TOUR at TPC Summerlin, but also includes some of the household names who have won here throughout the years, such as Fuzzy Zoeller, Davis Love III, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, and Webb Simpson.
Event History:
Past five winners:
2021: Sungjae Im (-24) / 2020: Martin Laird (-23) / 2019: Kevin Na (-23) /
2018: Bryson Dechambeau (-21) / 2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9)
Lowest Winning Score: Sungjae Im (-24) in 2021. This score has been reached three times since 2012 (Webb Simpson (2013), Ryan Moore (2012)
Largest Margin of Victory: Webb Simpson won the event in 2013 by 6 strokes while tying the lowest scoring record at the Shriners Children’s Open.
Playoff Information: This event has gone into playoff holes in three of the last five years, but prior to that, there hadn’t been a playoff since 2010.
Detailed Scorecard:
Course Information:
TPC Summerlin is a resort style course, playing off of par-71 and is approximately 7255 yards. Similar to most TPC courses, it produces a lot of low scores. Summerlin doesn’t require a ton of length off of the tee, however, it has the 12th highest average driving distance on courses played on tour (via DataGolf), meaning players can still get aggressive off of the tee.
TPC Summerlin has some large green complexes averaging 7400 sq. feet in size, and are made up of 100% bentgrass. The greens at TPC Summerlin are as pure as they come, ranking 15th highest in SG: on putts between 5-15 feet and 16th in SG on putts outside of 15 feet (via DataGolf). However, it should be noted that this year the greens will consist of a new type of bentgrass at TPC Summerlin this year in Dominator Bentgrass, adding another little wrinkle in for players to figure out.
Ultimately this event comes down to who is giving themselves the best birdie looks and converting them. Realistically, on a course like this the tournament is anyone's to win so don’t be scared of the longshots.
Path To Victory:
Par 3 Scoring: (P3 Efficiency 175-200)
There are four par 3’s scattered throughout this par-71 track. Three of these four par 3’s play over 195 yards and were three of the top four most bogeyed holes on the course last year. Playing these holes to par will be important to stay in the mix this weekend.
Par 5 Scoring: (P5 Efficiency - 550-600)
There are only three par 5’s out at TPC Summerlin all listed over 550 yards. Although they are long they can provide some eagle opportunities. All of these par 5’s were eagled at least eight times last year, with the 9th hole being eagled 15 times, and the 17th being eagled an absurd 29 times last year. Strong par 5 play is going to keep players in contention this weekend.
Par 4 Scoring:
It goes without saying, strong play on the par 4’s is always going to be necessary to compete for an event win on the PGA Tour, but the par 4’s at Summerlin are extremely gettable, having six par 4’s listed between 400-450 yards, and two others listed under 400 yards. There is going to be a bunch of quality birdie looks this weekend, meaning players are going to have to score on the par 4’s to separate themselves from the field.
2021 Sungjae Im Victory:
Im dominated the field last year, he ranked top 10 in SG off-the-tee, on approach, and putting. He had it all working last year, showing TPC Summerlin rewards pure ball striking. It’s rare that a guy has all three facets of the game going at the same time, but the two constants from the top of the leaderboard at this event last year were high SG: Putting and SG: Approach numbers.
Key Statistics:
- SG: Putting
- SG: Approach
- Prox. To Hole
- Driving Accuracy
- Green In Regulation%
The Field:
This week's field is being headlined by reigning champ Sungjae Im, along with Max Homa the Fortinet Championship winner from a few weeks ago and Patrick Cantlay making his first appearance of the season.
There are a few guys in this field that have had a bunch of success at TPC Summerlin including:
- Sungjae Im (+1100) - T15 / T13 / 1st @ TPC Summerlin
- Adam Schenk (+17500) - T20 / T18 / T27 / T3 @ TPC Summerlin
- Adam Hadwin (+6000) - T4 / T34 / T6 @ TPC Summerlin
There are also a handful of guys who have also been trending in the right direction in their last five starts on tour:
- Sungjae Im (+1100) - T2 / T2 / T12 / T15 / T2
- Patrick Cantlay (+700) - T8 / T2 / T57 / 1 / T7
- Max Homa (+1600) - T24 / T42 / T23 / T5 / 1
- Aaron Wise (+2200) - T34 / T13 / T31 / T15 / T13
- Emiliano Grillo (+3500) - T2 / T31 / T19 / T25 / T5
Official Picks:
Outrights
- Sungjae Im (+1400) @ BetMGM - To Win 7.00u
Best price available, still not quite +EV, but price is lower everywhere else and I expect it to drop the closer we get to Thursday.
- Aaron Wise (+2200) @ BetMGM - Boost Token -> +2430 - To Win 7.00u
MGM also has the best price on Aaron Wise at the time of writing, along with Bet365 and Betway here in Ontario, The model I use gives this play a whole 0.06 cents of value, which is awesome
Longshots:
- Beau Hossler (+15000) @ Bet365 - To Win 15.00u
Hossler is definitely more of a bomber than a ball striker, but he is exceptional putter and wedge player around the green. Hossler made his first start of the season at the Fortinet Championship where he gained +1.33 strokes on approach, and I am hoping he can build off of that T25 finish.
- Erik Barnes (+75000) @ Bet365 - To Win 75.00u
I am going to be honest here, this is a straight up dart. I noticed a major odds discrepancy between all the books and Bet365, Barnes is listed at +25000/+30000 on most major books, I am just going with the major value on this line, to bring my list to a nice round 1.00u on outrights.
Total Risk: 1.00u
Placements:
Top 20 Finishes:
- Emiliano Grillo (+200) @ DraftKings - To Win 1.00u
Grillo has been playing some very good golf dating back to last season’s John Deere Classic. In seven starts he has T2 / CUT / T2 / T31 / T19 / T25 / T5. In the first two events this season, he has gained more that 0.50 strokes on the greens, and last week at The Country Club of Jackson he gained +1.34 strokes on approach. Grillo plays with some distance, but still ranks in the top 40 in driving accuracy on tour this season. With a field that drops off in talent quickly, Grillo has a good chance to be fighting near the top of the leaderboard if this hot streak continues.
- Adam Hadwin (+280) @Bet365 - To Win 1.00u
Hadwin has been treading water recently with a handful of middle of the pack finishes, but in his last three starts on tour he has gained more strokes on approach in each of the last three. Additionally, he has gained strokes on the green in three consecutive years at the Shriners Open. Hadwin had five top 20 finishes on tour last season, and the lack of depth in this field makes me think he is going to be in the mix this weekend.
Top 40 Finishes:
- Mark Hubbard (+125) @ Bet365 - To Win 1.00u
Hubbard has started the 2022-23 season off hot. In the first two events he had a T21 and T5th place finish. Hubbard has finished just outside the top 40 in two of his three trips to TPC Summerlin, but I think get in the mix this weekend. Over the first two events this season Hubbard ranks 14th in SG on approach and 23rd in SG putting, I like Hubbard to continue his hot streak this weekend.
- Adam Schenk (+190) @ Bet365 - To Win 1.00u
Schenk clearly has an eye for this course, he has finished inside the top 30 in four of his last five appearances at TPC Summerlin. He has struggled with the flat stick to start this season, but he might find some comfort putting on these greens at TPC Summerlin where he gained +2.21 strokes with the putter last year.
Last week Schenk was cut at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and that would concern me more if he didn’t have the same result last year at the Sanderson Farms, and then come out and finish third in the Shriners Children’s Open the next week.
- Sam Ryder (+225) @ Bet365 - To Win 1.00u
Ryder has struggled off the tee in the first two events this season, but TPC Summerlin isn’t a course that requires distance. Ryder has gained strokes with the putter and on approach in each of the first two events this season. He had seven top 40 finishes on tour last season, and is coming off of a T45 last weekend. At this tournament Ryder has finished inside the top 20 on two occasions.
Total Risk: 2.55u
Matchups & Groups:
- Alex Noren - Top Swedish Finisher (+105) @ Bet365 - To Win 1.00u
Noren is an exceptional putter. He ranked 20th in SG: Putting last season, and gained +1.01 strokes with the putter at the Fortinet Championship in his first start this season. The model I use has Noren projected at -105, and there are only three other golfers in this group. I’ve got 10 cents of value on this play and the other three are projecting -EV, I am going to ride with the favorite in this group.
To stay up to date with live matchup picks throughout the weekend, make sure to follow me on twitter @PropDr_