It's hard to believe that Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season has already come and gone. After months and months of waiting for NFL football, the season is officially in full swing. There were major upsets, games that came down to the wire, and some absolute blowouts.
The Detroit Lions closed as 6-point underdogs against the Eagles last Sunday, and though they lost the game, they were able to cover the spread. The Washington Commanders closed as 3-point favorites on Sunday, and they also were able to win and cover the spread on a last-minute touchdown pass.
Moving into Week 2, Washington is headed to Detroit to take on the Lions. The lookahead line for this game was Detroit -1, and after Week 1 concluded and oddsmakers put up new spreads, the Lions actually became 2.5-point favorites. There is still plenty of time for the spread of this game to be moved around, but I am very intrigued with the fact that the Lions are favorites again in this game.
Detroit got out to a 7-0 lead against the Eagles on Sunday, only to play from behind for the rest of the game. The Lions were down 31-14 in the third quarter, and they entered the fourth quarter down 38-21. Detroit was able to score two more touchdowns to make this game look closer than it was, and they covered the spread, but I was not impressed with the Lions whatsoever.
The Commanders took on the Jaguars at home, and this game was messy for both teams. The Commanders had a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter, but the Jaguars squandered a few opportunities to get points before halftime. Jacksonville ended up taking a 22-14 lead early in the fourth quarter, and the Commanders had to rally back with two touchdown drives to secure the victory with 1:10 left.
Both of these teams showed this past weekend that they are flawed offensively and defensively. The Lions allowed 216 rushing yards and they only threw for 205 against Philly. The Commanders allowed 260 passing yards and just one touchdown pass, which looks good on paper, but in actuality, the Jaguars missed two easy touchdowns that will now show up on the scoresheet. Neither team was impressive last week, and I do not think it is a hot take to say both of these teams are bad.
When looking at this matchup, I am interested in a few things. For starters, the Commanders have a good offensive line and a run game, so I expect Washington to be able to control the clock. Detroit has a weak pass rush as well as a weak defensive back group, so Carson Wentz will be able to sling the ball at will. However, his inconsistency reared its head again last game, and Wentz almost threw the game away with two interceptions. Due to his inability to limit turnovers, the Lions should certainly stay in this game no matter what.
On the flip side, the Lions have the making of a team that puts up yards on the Washington defense. The Commanders are so reliant on getting pressure, and the Lions have a good offensive line, making it likely that Detroit can move the ball on Washington. The Lions had 181 rushing yards on a stout Philly defense, so it is expected that the Lions can repeat this next week.
Either way, both of these teams are slightly overvalued. To reiterate, the Lions game last week was not as close as it looked, and though the Commanders won, they probably should not have. I can slightly understand Detroit being favorites, but my numbers have Washington as the better team.
Where I would look to find an edge in this matchup is in the six-point teaser market. If the Commanders are still +2.5 on Sunday, and you can tease them up to +8.5, that would be a great bet. I have the Lions ranked lower than the Commanders, and there is no world where Detroit is nine points better than anyone. If this number is still Lions -2.5, I’d look to tease up the Commanders.
PLAY: Washington +2.5 is a great 6-point teaser leg on Sunday.