The Packers would love to control the clock and play keep away from the Titans the way they usually game-plan, but they are unlikely to find much success on the ground against this Tennessee front seven. The Titans have the best rush defense according to Football Outsiders DVOA and have permitted the third fewest yards per carry (3.9) to opposing running backs. The best way to attack this defense is through the air. They have allowed the fifth most yards to opposing wide-outs.
Christian Watson has all the hype surrounding him after last week, but Allen Lazard is still Rodger’s go-to guy in the passing game. He leads the team in targets averaging roughly seven per game and has 45 or more receiving yards in six of his eight games played this year while averaging 59 per game. Watson will still be involved, but the Packers are still thin at receiver especially after releasing their 2021 third-round draft pick Amari Rodgers. Was he a stud or what? In all seriousness, Romeo Doubs (second on the team in targets) is still out and Randall Cobb’s availability is up in the air following his reinstatement from injured reserve. Lazard should continue to see the lion’s share of the work in the passing game.
Goeff Feinberg thought he had a pick in the bag last week when he picked the Indianapolis Colts to tank after Jeff Saturday's hiring, but it looks like that was another pick in the red for him.
Aaron Jones also looks like a viable play here as well all things considered. His receiving line sits at 23.5 (-115) at the time of this writing. He has the thirrd highest target share on the team and a running back has eclipsed this mark in six of the nine games against the Titans. One of those misses came from the Bills 41-7 blowout win. Here’s a log of the running backs who have had success in the passing game against the Titans:
Melvin Gordon 4 catches 46 yards, Latavius Murray 3/23, Jerick McKinnon 6/40, Jonathan Taylor 7/27, Nyheem Hines 5/41, J.D. McKissic 5/37, Antonion Gibson 3/33, Josh Jacobs 5/31, Saquon Barkley 6/30.
Jones has been talking all week about how badly he was to join the elusive 24+ receiving yard running back club against the Titans too. A couple of dump-offs here, a couple of wheel routes there, and he should get there. I’m holding off on making this a play just yet because I want to see what his reception line is at. He has three or more receptions in 7/10 games this year.
The picks: Allen Lazard over 47.5 receiving yards (-120) vs TEN and potentially Aaron Jones over 23.5 receiving yards (-115) or Aaron Jones over 2.5 receptions (-150 guessing)
Unlike Tennessee, the Packers are one of the worst teams when it comes to stopping the run. They are 30th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the fifth highest YPC (4.8) to opposing backs; however, they have the eighth-best pass defense by DVOA’s metrics. Tony Pollard just gashed them for 115 yards on 22 carries last week, and we all know what Derrick Henry is capable of. He has reached the century mark in five of his last six games and should continue that trend at Lambeau on Thursday night.
The pick: Derrick Henry over 99.5 rushing yards (-115) vs GB