Lafayette @ Buffalo (-3.5, 46.5)
This one seems to be getting quite a bit of social media attention thanks to a near coin-flip spread and the well-publicized fact that Buffalo has lost in consecutive years to FCS teams. New Buffalo HC Pete Lembo knows the MAC well from his Ball State days and brings with him a pristine resume as a special teams coordinator, which could help offset some deficiencies elsewhere on the UB roster. Lembo's Ball State teams played quite fast, but his coordinator hires indicate he's not looking to get into shootouts. New DC Joe Bowen coached under Chuck Martin at Miami, and if he's going to implement the Martin scheme at Buffalo, we can expect an emphasis on limiting explosives and producing elite tackling. Lafayette is your classic Patriot league team with a major emphasis on the running game (63% rush rate) and jamming up opposing backfields (3.7 YPC allowed). If Buffalo is as run-heavy as I'm expecting them to be, this should be an utter slog.
North Dakota State @ Colorado (-9.5, 59.5)
The much-discussed mid-season offensive coordinator switch from Sean Lewis to Pat Shurmur ground the Colorado offense to a halt as the Buffs went from a 68/32 pass/run split to 54/46. This might have been a direct order from the top as Deion grew sick of watching his son scrambling for his life behind a truly pitiful offensive line. Deion yet again imported a slew of linemen from the Portal, but we've now seen enough data to conclude that patchwork Portal O lines are generally -EV. NDSU is a stay-at-home defense that won't blitz at a high rate, but they're perennially stout against the run and won't give up explosive plays. If CU maintains its 50/50ish split from the end of 2023, this game will play considerably below the projected pace. NDSU's O line is uncharacteristically young this season and starting the season in a primetime game at Folsom Field isn't ideal for communicating. As always, NDSU will be 70%+ run/pass on early downs and was the slowest team in all of D1 last year (1.87 plays per minute; tied with AFA and South Dakota St). NDSU will be without All-American safety Cole Wisniewski, which certainly hurts against an offense like Colorado's. Nonetheless, I played under 61.
Alcorn State @ UAB (-26.5, 55.5)
Alcorn promoted from within as its former defensive coordinator takes over a team that split the SWAC West title with Prairie View. This was a somewhat deceptive finish, though, as the Braves were +11 in TO margin despite being nearly dead-even in YPP margin (5.7 to 5.5) against a bottom 20 FCS schedule. Alcorn was non-competitive in its lone FBS game last year, losing 40-14 at woeful Southern Miss (closed +24). The Braves posted a stupefying 19% success rate and allowed USM's non-existent offense to gain nearly seven yards per play. I don't like UAB as an underdog, but against sub-par competition, Jacob Zeno's hyper-efficient, low-aDOT style keeps the chains moving. The Blazers were only favored by more than a field goal twice last season, covering against Temple (-8) and North Carolina A&T (-23). Not sure I'll be involved here, but would likely lean towards UAB against an Alcorn offense that lacks the efficiency to exploit UAB's myriad defensive woes.
Texas A&M Commerce @ San Diego State (-34.5, 57.5)
Commerce is in only its third year as an FCS program and didn't have the roster depth to withstand last season's top 40 difficulty FCS schedule. They did put up a hell of a fight as 26-point underdogs at Old Dominion in September and returned a decent dual-threat QB joined by nine FBS arrivals via the Portal. SDSU is undergoing as drastic a scheme makeover as any team in the country, and the recent history of such makeovers is -- to put it gently -- quite unkind. Lewis' offenses are fun to watch when clicking, but they also generate obscene rates of quick three-and-outs that hang his defenses out to dry. With a true freshman QB, a new scheme, a thousand new players, and Oregon State coming to Snapdragon in Week 2, I don't foresee Lewis letting it all hang out against such an overmatched opponent.
New Mexico @ Arizona (-31.5, 58.5)
Crusty old Bronco Mendenhall is 10-3 ATS when catching 14 or more points, covering by more than six points per game. His early UVA teams were often physically overmatched but tended to outperform relative to market expectations. First-year 'Zona coach Brett Brennan has a reputation as a defense-first coach whose San Jose State teams likewise tended to play "up" against superior competition. Brennan's offenses utilize plodding tempos (111th in plays per minute last season) and generally aren't built to cover massive spreads. To wit, Brennan is 0-5-1 ATS (per ActionLabs) when laying 14 or more points. The obvious caveat here is that this Arizona roster is far superior to any of Brennan's SJSU rosters, but this is quite an ambitious number for a first-year coach bringing in a completely new staff. I'm quite suspicious of the playcalling switch from departed offensive wizard Jedd Fisch to new OC Dino Babers, whose Syracuse offense was exceptionally run-heavy last season (6th in early down rush rate). This is not the Fisch offense in which Fifita thrived last season. I took the 31.5 with the Lobos.
UNLV @ Houston (-2.5, 54.5)
Fascinating tempo clash. UNLV was fourth nationally in situation-neutral pace; Fritz's Tulane team was 120th. While the pace and formations are quite different, both teams lean on their running games (both roughly 60% rush rates on standard downs). New Houston OC Kevin Barbay has coached some fast offenses in the past, which makes me wonder if Houston is going to play with more alacrity than the market is projecting. In the late August Houston heat, there's legitimate concern that these defenses might wear down amidst the play volume they're likely to face. As of Tuesday, UNLV's QB battle is undecided, but either of Sluka or Hajj-Malik Williams would present a difficult challenge for Houston's brand-new defensive personnel and coaching staff. I assume Sluka will win the job, but I’m sure it won’t be “confirmed” until kick-off. UNLV's defensive numbers from last season were fool's gold as the Rebs played an atrocious slate of offenses and were finally exposed by Kansas in the bowl game. This is a true toss-up on the side. I played over 54 but wouldn't go above the key number of 55.
Miami OH @ Northwestern (-2.5, 39.5)
I maintain a very rudimentary SOS-adjusted "available yards" power rating calculation which -- without adding in any extraneous variables -- would have made Northwestern an 8-point fave if this game was played at the end of last season. It doesn't account for turnovers or special teams, both of which are volatile game-to-game and difficult to replicate. Miami was the best special teams unit in the country last season and these are two of 2023's luckiest teams (the extent of their good fortune varies depending on how you calculate "luck"). Northwestern's sharp offseason hire of South Dakota St OC Zach Lujan appears to be flying well under-the-radar despite Lujan directing a top two FCS offense over the past two seasons. The Jacks rolled up 7.5 yards per play (second to Montana State) despite a 70% run rate with minimal passing. Mike Wright bombed out at Vandy and Miss State, but his running ability is a great fit for Lujan's scheme. Plenty of unpredictability here in a low-total game and possible swirling winds on the lake at Northwestern's new-but-temporary home, but I'm content with the 'Cats at -3 or better.
Merrimack @ Air Force (-28.5, 47.5)
Merrimack is among the ten most run-heavy teams in the FCS (72.1% run rate in 2023). The Warriors promoted the DC to head coach and returned most of last season's top-rated NEC run defense. We can reasonably assume that the new coach is not going to deviate from the run-heavy tendencies of the last several seasons. Merrimack is newly-independent after being booted from NEC football due to joining the MAAC for other sports (including hoops) but should be accustomed to dealing with ground-centric attacks from its days in the ground-heavy NEC. Of course, the Air Force option is a different beast entirely. This is only Merrimack's second FBS game in the last six seasons (if you count last year's meeting with UMass as an FBS opponent) and the first time in program history in which they are taking a chartered flight. People will be impressed that you know this piece of trivia. Both teams were bottom 10 nationally in tempo last year among 260+ Division 1 teams. This is an ugly game in which the clock might never stop running.
Nevada @ Troy (-9.5, 45.5)
Not only is Troy replacing its entire offense, but the coaching change from Sumrall to Gerard Parker heralds a major philosophical change. After finishing 29th in 2023 in early down pass rate, the Trojans now project to be very run-heavy. As Notre Dame OC last year, Parker dialed up runs on 62% of early downs (27th nationally) and slowed the offense to a sub-100 tempo. Even if Parker wanted to throw the ball (he doesn't), his inaugural Troy offense lacks the weaponry to do so. Nevada's offense picked up where it finished 2023 with a putrid 31% success rate against SMU and benefitted from a SMU fumble that led to a 9-yard TD drive. Jeff Choate is a defensive-minded coach who wants to grind the clock with old school ground-and-pound. Even in an overall atrocious 2023 season in Reno, the secondary finished mid-pack nationally in most stats and looked the part again last Saturday against a potent SMU passing attack. Troy is unlikely to do much of anything through the air. The Pack ran on 65% of early downs last week, which would have ranked 14th nationally last season. I played under 45.5 but wouldn't go below the ultra-important number of 45.
Western Kentucky @ Alabama (-31.5, 59.5)
On a slate with a bevy of grizzly-looking under slogs, this game profiles as perhaps the most pass-happy of Week 1. Under DeBoer last season, Washington was number one in pass rate over expectation (PROE); WKU was 7th. Even with big leads, the Huskies continued throwing the ball rather than merely running out the clock. DeBoer's offense looks like a tailor-made fit for Jalen Milroe's skill set. Bama is breaking in a brand-new secondary under the tutelage of new DC Kane Wommack, whose scheme bears little resemblance to that of his predecessor. Defending WKU's modified Air Raid isn't the easiest assignment given the personnel and scheme changes in Tuscaloosa. Even if Bama is comfortably ahead in the second half, WKU isn't going to stop throwing the ball around with well-known former SEC QB T.J. Finley. I like the over at the key number of 59 or better.
Tennessee Tech @ Middle Tennessee (+23.5, 52.5)
The rekindling of the "Totem Bowl," which hasn't been played since 2006. Learn something new every day. There is much to unpack with Tennessee Tech, who imported 17 (!) FBS transfers to play for new coach Bobby Wilder, who coached ODU from 2009-2019. New OC Brian Scott spent the last two years as OC at New Hampshire, where he turned UNH into a pass-happy monster (third in FCS in pass frequency rate) and coached up new Minnesota QB Max Brosmer and recent Raiders draft pick, Dylan Laube. Like most Portal-heavy teams, defense is the biggest question mark as it's difficult to establish communication and cohesiveness with so many new pieces. Ditto for MTSU, who hired Vandy re-tread Derrick Mason as its new head coach and ended the interminable, dynastic reign of Rick Stockstill. The Raiders signaled a shift towards moving into the 21st century offensively by hiring Bodie Reeder from Northern Iowa. Reeder's resume is laden with stops at pass-happy offenses but he's probably going to be close to 50/50 with the Blue Raiders. Total crapshoot of a game considering the newness on both sides.
UTEP @ Nebraska (-27.5, 48.5)
The ubiquitous UTEP-as-Texas State comps are a bridge too far for me considering the raw talent gaps between the two rosters, but Scotty Walden did bring with him to El Paso 12 players and nearly the entire APSU coaching staff. This is not the standard "Year Zero" rebuild job to which we've become accustomed in the Portal Era. Several of these former Peay players had key roles in APSU's valiant effort at Tennessee last September, when the Govs (48-point dogs) managed more first downs than the Volunteers at Neyland and possessed the ball for 39+ minutes. The Rhule/Satterfield combo prefers a plodding pace (bottom 15 in situation-neutral pace) and with a freshman QB (albeit an extremely talented one) making his first career start, I cannot see the Huskers jamming the accelerator with the much-hyped revenge spot with Colorado on-deck. The Huskers will be more balanced this year after finishing last season 6th in rush rate over expectation (behind only the three service academies, Rutgers, and Liberty). Still, given the circumstances, I played UTEP +28.