Duke @ Northwestern (-2.5, 36.5)
Tale of two tempos. New Duke OC Jonathan Brewer is from the Rhett Lashlee tree at SMU and was the Mustangs' QB coach last season. As expected, he cranked up Duke's tempo in the first game with 2.53 plays per minute in neutral situations (top 20 pace). The issue is that he doesn't have the personnel to run SMU tempo, particularly with a QB (Malik Murphy) who lacks the rushing skill to be a threat in the zone read/RPO game, thereby allowing defenses to sell out on the running back. Elon is a quality FCS defense, but Duke's running game was brutal in the opener (stuffed on 38% of attempts; fourth-worst FBS rate of Week 1). My hunch is that Brewer knows that his offense can't run the ball, which is why he abandoned it midway through the game and cut Murphy loose downfield, where he produced a top 20 aDOT (12.3) on 40 attempts. Duke ended the week with the 8th-highest pass rate over expectation, per Campus2Canton. I wrote about new Northwestern OC Zach Lujan last week and he brought a carbon-copy of his South Dakota State offense with him to Evanston. Northwestern will likely maintain a bottom 10 tempo all season, though Mike Wright threw the ball (30 attempts; 38th of 136 qualified Week 1 QBs in aDOT) more than I anticipated given his history. I begrudgingly played over 36 with the hope and expectation that Duke's tempo forces higher play volume than the depressed total would otherwise portend.
Michigan State @ Maryland (-9.5, 44)
The general disjointedness of the FAU/Michigan State game obscured the aggressiveness with which Michigan State seemingly wants to play offensively. Aidan Chiles finished 11th among 138 qualified Week 1 QBs in aDOT and demonstrated a desire to frequently throw the ball downfield. As is typical with Jonathan Smith's teams, MSU tilted towards the run (26th in Week 1 in rush rate over expectation), but that was largely due to being in neutral or positive game script throughout the night against FAU. If the Spartans fall behind early against Maryland (as anticipated), Chiles will take more shots downfield and the pass rate will naturally increase. This MSU defense isn't nearly as stout as it appeared in Week 1 and benefitted from abysmal QB play from Cam Fancher. Meanwhile, Maryland looked like an efficiency juggernaut against UConn, rolling up 10 yards per dropback and a 50% success rate on standard downs despite a low 7.1 aDOT. The Maryland offense is predicated on getting the ball to athletes in space, and Smith's Oregon State defense was dead-last nationally last year (#133) in PFF's tackling metrics. FAU had nothing on the outside to threaten the MSU secondary, but Maryland's deep receiving group presents an entirely different challenge. I played over 44 with the expectation that MSU being in negative game script will force a more pass-heavy approach with the gun-slinging Chiles forcing the ball downfield at a high clip and Maryland's powerful offense exposing the myriad holes in the MSU defense.
East Carolina @ Old Dominion (+2.5, 55)
ECU's much-hyped switch to the Air Raid with former Ole Miss OC John David Baker didn't go particularly well in the opener. Jake Garcia threw three INTs and the offense tallied just three explosive plays against a bottom 15 FCS defense (Norfolk was #111 in FCS in adjusted defense last season). Sure, they rolled up 500+ yards, but it was mostly due to a play volume edge, and the Pirates' 7.0 YPP number against such a horrid FCS unit is somewhat underwhelming. Air Raid offenses can take substantial time to implement and ECU's porous run blocking makes this offense one-dimensional. Norfolk stuffed 29% of ECU's runs -- a staggering number considering the overall talent differential. ODU went through similar struggles last season in Kevin Decker's debut as OC (formerly at Fordham). These G5 rosters often lack the skill position athletes necessary to optimize the pace-and-space nature of up-tempo spread schemes. ODU's 2023 offense was equally awful in both efficiency (#113 adjusted) and explosiveness (#120 adjusted), and I don't see it getting any better this season. Both teams want to play at turbo speed, but neither has the weaponry to consistently make it work. ECU's stout run defense (#1 last year in standard downs success; #7 in line yards) is probably the best unit on the field. I’m holding off on playing the under in hopes that the hype surrounding the ECU offense drives the number closer to the 57/58 range.
Liberty @ New Mexico State (+22, 56.5)
New NMSU defensive coordinator Joe Morris (then the DC at Sam Houston) was one of the few who was able to slow down Liberty last season, holding the Flames to a 40% success rate (only Oregon allowed a lower number to Chadwell's offense). That game closed 46/46.5 and never threatened the over. Liberty did hit a bunch of explosive plays against Morris' defense, but also produced a pile of uncharacteristic three-and-outs. SHSU games last season were frequently lined in the high 30's and low 40's, and I'm not convinced the current NMSU offense is more than a point or two better than last year's abysmal SHSU offense. There’s some real risk of Liberty threatening a 50-burger if Salter and Co. break a bunch of explosive runs, but given the dire QB situation at NMSU and both teams wanting to lean heavily on the ground with slow tempo, I played under 59.
Kansas State @ Tulane (+9.5, 47.5)
One of the highest-variance games of the week. Chris Klieman crushed this Jon Sumrall-led Tulane staff last season (when they were at Troy), tallying an overall 47% to 22% success rate advantage, including an incredible 13% success rate allowed on standard downs. Troy's offensive coordinator, Joe Craddock, followed Sumrall to Tulane and now has to deal with the same KSU defensive scheme that threw him for a loop in last year's meeting. As expected in its opener against SELA, Tulane went run-heavy, but freshman QB Darian Mensah showed some explosive potential in leading all Week 1 QB's in aDOT at 16.2 per attempt (albeit on only 12 total pass attempts). Of note, Klieman has lost outright four times in 11 tries as a double-digit favorite, though he's also beaten the closing number by 13 or more points in five of the other seven games. Simplified, he's been extraordinarily feast-or-famine in these spots. This Tulane team is an early-season mystery box, which makes this game ripe fodder for either a Tulane longshot ML play or KSU alt line (or both).
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse (+2.5, 61)
Quasi-rematch of last season's finale in Atlanta, when new Syracuse HC Fran Brown (then the DBs coach at Georgia) faced Buster Faulkner's hyper-efficient, yard-munching GT offense. Tech's offense moved the ball more efficiently than any prior UGA opponent (season-high 51% success rate) by leaning heavily on the ground (68% rush rate) and grinding out 44 carries. Sound familiar? It should, because Tech is following an identical blueprint this year (68% rush rate on standard downs). In one of the most efficient games of the entire college football season (98th and 89th percentile success rates), UGA and Tech "only" combined for 54 points because the game played at a sluggish pace (barely over 2.0 plays per minute) and neither team was able to hit explosives. Brown's coaching background (Rutgers under Schiano and UGA under Kirby) leads me to believe that he'll place major emphasis on his inaugural Syracuse team preventing explosives. The 'Cuse offense is something of a mystery with long-time NFL RBs coach Jeff Nixon stepping into playcalling duties, and things looked solid last week against Ohio, but the Bobs are starting over with a completely new and inexperienced defense. Tech's defense looks entirely remade under the tutelage of first-year DC Jonathan Santucci, whose Mike Elko-taught 4-2-5 is designed to prevent big plays. Both teams should have little trouble methodically moving the ball, but given GT's pace and both defenses' ability to limit big plays, I'm skeptical that play volume will be high enough to get over the total. 61 is a very key number for totals. I played under 61.5.
Western Michigan @ Ohio State (-38, 54)
What are we looking for with mega underdogs? Sustained, clock-killing drives and a defense that won't give up oodles of explosive plays. WMU checks both boxes. Ryan Day lacks the boot-to-the-throat vindictiveness of some of his colleagues (see: Kiffin, Lane) and is generally content to grind away the clock with a sizable lead. With a bye on-deck, Day will presumably get his back-ups in as soon as possible to assess possible redshirts. WMU acquitted itself admirably in Madison last week, churning out a hefty 73% early down rush rate (13th highest) behind a veteran offensive line. Lance Taylor kept the ball out of Hayden Wolff's hands, and when he did throw, it was short, low-risk attempts (only one TO-worthy play on 18 attempts). If WMU can sustain a few 4:00-5:00 minute drives and avoid the type of calamitous plays that Akron allowed last week, Ohio State likely won't have enough time nor play volume to cover this number. Of note, WMU's defense (under a new defensive staff) held Wisconsin to the third-lowest explosive rate nationally in Week 1. Naturally, Ohio State's playmakers are several tiers above Wisconsin's, but I nonetheless played a mix of WMU +38 and +38.5.
Quick Hitters
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (-2.5, 62.5)
It was common knowledge that Kade Bell's arrival would harken a newfound era of up-tempo Pitt football, but even the most optimistic prognosticator likely could not have foreseen a 26.7% pass rate over expectation number in Week 1. For context, over the course of a full season, such a number would be the eighth-highest PROE of the last decade. The other seven? All Mike Leach-coached teams. For good reason, the over has taken quite a bit of money and now looks more appropriately-priced. Unless Narduzzi panic-wets himself and can’t resist his natural urge to run the damn ball, Pitt should be a weekly offensive circus.
Akron @ Rutgers (-23, 39)
Joe Moorhead's horizontal offense relies upon generating YAC to offset its paltry aDOT totals. Only one problem: Akron has no playmakers on the outside. Comically, against Ohio State, the Zips' two QBs posted aDOTs of 2.5 and -1.1. MINUS ONE POINT ONE. It's called a "forward" pass, Joe. Akron is unlikely to find success against a fundamentally-sound Rutgers defense that finished fourth nationally in 2023 in PFF's tackling metrics. The Zips have nary a prayer of running the ball against the stout Rutgers front and finished dead-last nationally in 2023 in explosive play rate. Schiano can likely name it here, but with a bye on-deck ahead of a trip to Blacksburg, he might not be motivated to gun the throttle (to the extent the Rutgers offense is capable of such a thing). I'd be a buyer if this creeps down into the 21-ish range.
UAB @ UL Monroe (+13, 53.5)
This one is going to be special. Among 138 QBs in Week 1 who attempted at least 10 passes, Jacob Zeno (UAB) and General Booty (ULM) both ranked bottom five in aDOT. Check-down city, baby. There's also the underlying sub-plot in which new ULM coach Bryant Vincent seeks vengeance on UAB for bypassing him for Dilfer after Vincent rallied the troops as interim coach when Bill Clark stepped down. Vincent took a handful of former UAB staff with him to Monroe. Plenty of familiarity on both sides. I noted in last week's column that UAB's low-risk, short passing game offense is conducive to smacking overmatched opponents but can't "elevate" against better teams. Theoretically, ULM is a vastly inferior team, but strange things happen in Monroe, LA (to which Dilfer himself made passing reference this week). Can't see myself getting involved here.
Texas Tech @ Washington State (-2.5, 65.5)
Since the start of the 2021 season, FBS vs. FBS totals closing 67 or higher are 81-54 to the under (61.3%). The reasons for this are likely multi-causal, but anything above 67 would pique my interest in the under -- particularly with perception of both teams skewed by incredible offensive performances in Week 1.