UNLV @ Kansas (-9, 57.5)
The ideal Friday night chaos game. Matt Sluka is Vegas-In-a-Quarterback, a true dice roll motherfucker who leads the country in aDOT, leads all QB’s in missed tackles forced, and is top 10 in PFF’s big-time throw rate… but is also dead-last in PFF’s adjusted completion percentage The entire game plan for Kansas will presumably center on turning him into a pocket passer, where he is quite poor. Contrary to its reputation as a high-flying circus act, the Rebs’ Go-Go offense is a run-heavy machine, currently ranking sixth nationally in rush rate over expectation (behind only the service academies, Vandy, and ULM). I grossly underestimated the severity of the scheme drop-off from Andy Kotelnicki to Jeff Grimes, and through two games, Jalon Daniels has reverted back to all of his worst habits from his younger days and ranks bottom 20 (among 126 qualified QBs) in adj. completion rate. Nonetheless, KU did outplay Illinois on the road last week – winning on standard downs and overall success rate – but was undone by a couple of ill-timed mistakes. With two erratic quarterbacks who love to (inaccurately) throw downfield and what will likely be quick sequences of three-and-outs interspersed with random explosive plays, I’m only interested in the UNLV ML or Kansas blowout alt lines.
Nevada @ Minnesota (-17.5, 44)
There are explosiveness-driven overs and there are efficiency-driven overs. This one is firmly the latter. With two slow-paced offenses (Nevada is 81st and Minnesota is 111th in situation-neutral pace, per Campus2Canton), sheer play volume is not going to be sufficient to push this one over the total. Instead, I’m relying on the short-area accuracy of the two quarterbacks, both of whom rank top 15 nationally (among 126 qualified QBs) in “on-target rate” at 83%. The current national median is 72%. As you’d expect, both QBs have produced low aDOTs (7.0 and 7.2), but with such a low total, I don’t necessarily need a bevy of chunk plays. Neither defense is particularly havoc-minded, which should allow the offenses to methodically dink-and-dunk their way down the field. Minnesota is leaning much more pass-heavy with Max Brosmer than it has in recent years and surprisingly ranks 57th in pass rate over expectation after finishing well outside of the top 100 in the previous five years. I should also note – per SIS – both defenses are bottom 10 nationally in tackling efficiency (broken tackle + missed tackle rate). It won’t be sexy, but I played over 42.5 and narrowly beat the steam to 44/44.5.
North Texas @ Texas Tech (-10, 69)
Since the start of the 2021 season, totals closing 69 or higher are 50-22 to the under, going below the close by an average of 6.7 points per game. The reasons for this pattern exceed the narrow scope of this article, but high-total games have disproportionately suffered from recent rule changes. The North Texas offensive line is quite hampered right now, with Eric Morris listing four of the five starters as “questionable” this week. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is a MASH unit on both sides of the ball with Tahj Gray potentially in-line to miss another game. Yes, both offenses are fast, but the recent trend in college football is that turbo-speed offenses are sometimes quite inefficient. Morton (TTU) and Morris (UNT) are both low-aDOT throwers (7.6 and 7.0, respectively) who rely on playmakers creating missed tackles in space. I played under 70.
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa (+18.5, 62.5)
I play very few situational “spots” nowadays as the market deals with them much more efficiently than in years past, but this one doesn’t look fully adjusted. Oklahoma State’s defense was on the field for an FBS-high 92 plays last week against Arkansas and lost two starting linebackers to injury for what Gundy termed a “substantial” period of time. In an early (11 AM CT) kickoff in a “big brother” game for Tulsa, I wouldn’t expect Gundy to jam the accelerator with Utah, KState, and West Virginia up next in quick succession prior to the bye week. Tulsa appears to be among the most improved teams in the G5 and took a deceptive loss last week at Arkansas State despite winning the success rate “battle,” 46% to 35%, but allowed a few too many explosive plays. Wish I was able to grab the early week +20, but I played a mix of +18.5 and +19 and I have a suspicion this one closes in the +17 range.
Boston College @ Missouri (-16, 54)
Plenty of underdog-friendly similarities between Boston College and Arizona State, with the primary differentiator BC’s explosiveness (6th in explosive play rate; ASU entered last night outside of the top 100). The Eagles lean heavily on the run with Castellanos among the three most dynamic QB runners in the country right now. Even in pass-likely situations, BC is committed to the run, ranking 7th in rush over expectation. BC is also a snail, ranking 112th in situation-adjusted pace, per Campus2Canton, which should aid in shortening the game. Perhaps Mizzou has kept its best material under wraps in its first two games, but the Tiger offense has thus far looked underwhelming, ranking 129th in explosive play rate with Brady Cook a tick below national average with a 69.7% on-target rate despite facing a bottom 20 FCS school and Buffalo. Game script matters quite a bit here as forcing BC into early pass situations could spell doom, but O’Brien is an excellent game planner who will condense the game and churn the clock. I played +17 early in the week.
LSU @ South Carolina (+6.5, 48.5)
Elite stylistic contrast as LSU (4th in pass rate over expectation) meets an uber-run-heavy (120th in pass rate over expectation) South Carolina squad. Shane Beamer has been a home dog of six or more points six times in his career, winning outright twice as a 3-TD dog (Florida in 2021; Tennessee in 2022) and again in 2022 versus Auburn as a 7-point dog. His gameplan here should be relatively straightforward: shorten the game and keep LSU’s offense sidelined. I could copy and paste some of the things I wrote about Sluka here and apply them to LaNorris Sellers, a run-first QB who struggles with his short-area accuracy but loves taking shots downfield. LSU’s pass rush has heretofore been completely absent (94th in pressure rate) which is a boon to the struggling USC offensive line. LSU’s offense has thus far shown little interest in running the ball, and on the road in its first road test of the season, I’m skeptical of the efficacy of such a pass-heavy strategy. I played under 51 early in the week and am mixing in the Gamecocks in some ML RRs.
Others
- The WVU/Pitt total was careening towards the key number of 65 when it ran into a wall of resistance in the 64/64.5 range. It’s trading 63.5/64 as of Friday morning and will likely fall short of my 65 buy point. Kade Bell’s blistering tempo is generating ample publicity, but QB Eli Holstein still looks like a work in progress in this new system with a terrible 64% on-target rate, per SIS. WVU is outside of the top 100 in situation-neutral pace and is 35th in rush rate over expectancy, which will presumably lead to Neal Brown leaning heavily on the ground game to keep Pitt’s offense sidelined. Pitt’s defense stuffed the WVU ground attack in last season’s meeting, though Greene left the game with an injury after the first drive.
- Through two weeks, Wyoming’s Evan Svoboda is SIS’s lowest-graded qualified passer. Life won’t get any easier against a revamped BYU front seven generating pressure at a top 10 rate. This is the spot-of-all-spots for Wyoming, but I can’t trust this inept offense to generate anything, and the defense is unlikely to help out with bottom 10 havoc and pressure ranks. Retzlaff can be goaded into mistakes when forced into obvious passing downs, but the ‘Pokes defense allowed Idaho (53.5%) and Arizona State (58.0%) to feast on standard downs, thereby alleviating pressure on the quarterback. I don’t see Wyoming capable of replicating SMU’s defensive success but would nonetheless be interested in playing under 41 (a crucial number), but the market has been stalled in the 40/40.5 range for a few days.
- Speaking of spots, this is a grizzly situational week for South Florida following a valiant effort in Tuscaloosa and ahead of the biggest home game of the Golesh Era next week against Miami. USF’s hair-on-fire tempo (second to Mississippi State in situation-neutral pace) creates high-variance outcomes, and QB Byron Brown currently grades out dead-last among all qualified QBs in on-target rate. He’s the only quarterback in the country below 50%. Southern Miss is utterly deplorable, but I’m inclined to include the Eagles as a long shot ML RR candidate in light of the difficulty of the spot for USF, the boom-or-bust nature of the Golesh offense, and Todd Orlando’s go-for-broke defensive tendencies. This is the first time Golesh has been favored by more than a TD against an FBS opponent.