My streak of three straight winning weeks came to an end last Sunday when I went 2-3 for (-1.22 units). That brings my season-long record in these best bets articles to 15-15 (-1.21 units).
The good news is, there's a lot of football left to bet on this season!
Let’s get back on the right side of things in Week 7.
Here are my five best bets for this Sunday’s action.
For more Week 7 bets, watch Hitman and Matt Landes on this week's edition of Props & Hops:
Aaron Rodgers OVER 228.5 passing yards (-115)
It’s time for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to get back on track.
Luckily for Rodgers, he has a favorable matchup this week when he takes on the Washington Commanders. The Commanders rank 23rd in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up an average of 7.0 yards per throw. They’re also dead last in the league in opponent yards per completion at 12.1.
That leads me to believe we’re going to see some chunk plays from the Packers passing attack, which will certainly help the OVER cash on Rodgers’ passing yards total. Let’s also remember that despite a down season, Rodgers is still averaging 233.8 passing yards per game, which is higher than his set total for this Week 7 showdown.
Jaguars -3 (-110) vs. Giants
I tried this strategy last week and it didn’t work, but I’m back on it again for Week 7. The Giants 5-1 record is impressive, but we should be fading them for the next few weeks. If you look at their statistics, you’ll see why they’re underdogs in this game and why you shouldn’t be buying into them despite their strong record.
Heading into their game against the Jaguars, the Giants rank 27th in the NFL in net yards per play. Even last week against the Ravens, the Giants were outgained 7.0 yards per play, to 3.8 yards per play. Those kind of numbers aren’t sustainable across a large sample size.
Also, the Jaguars match up well with the Giants from a stylistic standpoint. 51.37% of the Giants offensive yards this season come from running the football, that’s the second highest mark in the NFL. Now, they have to face a Jacksonville defense that ranks third in opponent yards per carry, keeping teams to gaining just 3.6 yards per carry.
Jacksonville is the play this weekend.
Browns/Ravens OVER 46 (-110)
Heading into the season, many people thought the Browns and Ravens would have two of the best defenses in the NFL. That certainly hasn't been the case through the first six weeks. Entering their first meeting, they rank 20th and 28th in opponent yards per play
Not only that, but both teams struggle to stop the run. Baltimore is allowing 4.5 yards per carry, and Cleveland is allowing 5.0 yards per carry.
That leads me to believe both offenses, which are primarily run-based, should have no issue moving the ball down the field and scoring. The Ravens rank 1st in yards per carry at 5.9, and the Browns are close behind them averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
The OVER in this AFC North showdown is my favorite total bet of the week.
Raiders -7 (-106) vs. Texans
The Las Vegas Raiders are much better than their 1-4 record might indicate. Their offense ranks inside the top 10 in the NFL in yards per play, and they have an average scoring margin of only -1.
Now, with their BYE week behind them, they have a chance to get back on track against arguably the worst team in the league in the Houston Texans.
The Texans don’t do anything particularly well. They rank 26th in yards per play and 31st in third down conversion rate.
The Raiders defense has let them down at times this year, but they shouldn’t have much of an issue containing Davis Mills and the Houston offense.
I have no issue laying a touchdown with Las Vegas.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-125)
Kenneth Walker III didn’t disappoint in his first start for the Seahawks last week. He ran for 97 yards on 21 carries, averaging 4.62 yards per rush against the Cardinals. He is clearly getting the majority of work running the football for the Seahawks, and now he has a fantastic matchup that he can take advantage of on Sunday.
Entering the game, the Chargers rank 31st in the NFL in opponent yards per carry, allowing 5.6 yards per rush. The former Michigan State standout already had a solid day against a Cardinals defense that ranks in the top half of the league in opponent yards per carry, so there’s no reason why he won’t feast against the porous Los Angeles front seven.
As long as Seattle commits to running the football, I have a lot of confidence in this play cashing.
Be sure to head over to BetSided to see the rest of my plays for this weekend’s NFL slate.