Welcome to the first installment of Prop Patrol, a piece of work which I intend to publish twice per week. It will be a sub-five minute read and will provide some good analysis on the prop markets within the NFL.
I intend to write to inform you of situations I’m eyeing throughout the week, any props I’m betting, and most importantly how to use betstamp’s line shopping tool to maximize our closing line value. Without further ado, let's dive right into this first installment of Prop Patrol and make some bets!
Coming off of a hectic Week 3, there is plenty of injury, situational. and performance based news that will be used to shape this week's upcoming prop markets. Significant notes for Week 4 in the NFL include:
- The first European game of the season (9:30 a.m. ET) between the Vikings and the Saints.
- The Vikings will be without star running back Dalvin Cook
- Brian Hoyer will likely be starting the game for the Patriots as they battle the Packers at Lambeau Field
- D’Andre Swift is likely to miss multiple games for the Lions
- The Chargers suffer significant long-term injuries
With a couple of these points in mind, let's dive right into some spots I will be targeting as books begin to release their prop lines.
Dolphins Need a Breather
Starting with the Thursday night game in which the Dolphins will be hosted by the Bengals, I expect the stats to be very one sided in this matchup. The Miami Dolphins have just come off a huge win against the Bills in that spicy Florida heat. Against the Bills, the Dolphins defense ran 90 opposing plays against an explosive and fast Bills offense. Compound that with a short week of preparation and mix in some travel time, and I believe we will see a wide open game from the Bengals offense.
I take a look at Joe Mixon, a super talented running back who only had 12 carries for 27 yards last week. He also only saw 66% of the offensive snaps in the Bengals’ last game. I expect the market will bring his rushing attempts down based off of this performance, which is exactly what I will be looking for. We’ve seen his attempt total be anywhere from 17.5 to 21.5 over the past three weeks, I’ll be checking betstamp’s player prop tool as soon as props get released, hoping to bet the over on something in the range of 17.5 -110 or lower.
Pound the Rock Bills
Next, let’s take a trip over Baltimore where the Ravens will be hosting the Bills in what looks to be a get-back game for Buffalo after last week's “not enough time to spike it” debacle. Josh Allen has been on fire to start the season and has exceeded his passing yard totals each of the past three weeks. Using betstamp’s past lines we can see that these lines have been in the area of 260.5 all the way up to 277.5. After his 400-yard performance against the Dolphins I expect this line to open slightly higher than normal and only get inflated all the way up to game time.
I will be looking to buy the under on Josh Allen’s pass yardage as I believe the Bills will get back to more of a 65-35 split between passing and running, opposed to the 75% passing plays they ran last week. A number in the range of 297.5 or higher will be a spot I look to attack later in the week.
Time to go Hunting
For the next spot to watch, we are going to head back to an Ohio team in the Cleveland Browns. Facing off against a Falcons team allowing 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, I’m looking for the two headed backfield of Chubb and Hunt to feast on the dirty birds. The two running backs (seeing about a 45-55% split in favor of Nick Chubb) could both be starting running backs for any team in the league. For this situation I will focus on Kareem Hunt, getting around 12 carries per game and delivering around 4 yards per attempt. I think he has a great day against the Falcons and I look to target his over rushing yards in the range of 42.5 to 48.5.
The New Davante?
For my second to last outlook of this article, let's bounce over to the Green Bay Packers. Although 2-1, the Packers have failed to really get their offense rolling. Some will say it’s the lack of wide receivers, some will say it’s the lack of talent within the wide receiver room, regardless I think I’ve found a spot that can be very advantageous for the bettor. Romeo Doubs, has been opening at numbers of 2.5 to 3.5 receptions for his past few games, with these numbers being juiced to the under. In what could have been Doubs’ coming out party last week against the Buccaneers, the first year wide receiver saw 8 targets, while hauling in all of them. In previous games, he’s seen a target share of 5 and 3.
I find it hard not to love the over on Doubs if the line opens at 3.5 or 4.5, especially at a price of +100 or higher. Also look for Doubs to score a touchdown this week at a price of +270 or higher. In the past three games he’s seen 4 red zone targets.
MVS just can’t Catch
Finally, to conclude this first installment of Prop Patrol, I’ll talk about a bet that I may be continuing to hammer all year. Marquez Valdez-Scantling joins this crowded Chiefs receiving corps mainly to play the deep threat role as he has done for the Packers in previous seasons. His reception total has been opening at 3.5 every week and I continue to favor the under. We usually see the under close in the range of -115 to -135 and frankly I think that these prices don’t indicate the true probability of this happening. Although he has put up back-to-back weeks with 7 targets, his average depth of target has been increasing as well. I believe that he will morph back into the receiver he was for the Packers, a deep ball catcher that simply can’t sustain 4 catches per game.
I expect this line to open up at 3.5 again this week, possibly juiced to the over due to the last two weeks’ target share. Again, I will be waiting as long as I can until I bet the under.
That’s all the outlooks I have for this week, I'll hopefully be back with another rendition of Prop Patrol later this week, once lines have begun to come out and solidify. Until next time!