There are a few games that are appealing on this Sunday’s slate of games that look ripe to be used in a same game parlay. My favorite one is the one I feel the best about my lean in, which is the Buccaneers and Steelers.
The Bucs and Steelers are two teams going in very different directions right now and I think Pittsburgh fans may be in for more of the same as they experienced last week against Buffalo. The Steelers are coming off a 38-3 loss, and while they may make this score a little bit more competitive I see no reason why the Buccaneers don’t take advantage of a very banged up and just plain not very good Steelers team.
The way I see this game going is the Buccaneers get out to a comfortable lead through Tom Brady tearing up the third string Steelers secondary, followed by Kenny Pickett throwing a ton to try and keep up and Leonard Fournette putting the game on ice through the ground.
This week I have a three tiers of parlay’s for this game:
Tier I: The Same Game Smash Play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5
Leonard Fournette Over 55.5 Yards Rushing
George Pickens Over 49.5 Yards Receiving
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 20.5 Points Scored
+650 on PointsBet
I think you could go even lower on the points total for the Steelers if you wanted to, but I can’t see them scoring more than 20 on the Bucs. They can’t get their running game going and I expect they’ll get behind early which will take that away already. I foresee Kenny Pickett racking up the yards similar to last week when he threw the ball 52 times, but also like last week I don’t see them finding the endzone much in this one either. I also don’t see the Steelers slowing down the Buccaneers much at all so while a road favorite of -9.5 seems like a lot, in this case I have no problem laying that.
One trend we’ve seen since Kenny Pickett has had control of the offense is the involvement of George Pickens has gone up. Pickens has six catches each of the last two weeks with 102 yards two weeks ago and 83 last week. Pickett should rack up another large amount of pass attempts and Pickens will benefit.
Finally, I feel really good about Leonard Fournette’s chances of topping 55 yards. Fournette has 56 yards or more in all three of the Bucs wins this year, and in both double digit wins he has topped 20 carries as well. The passing game may get the Buccaneers the lead, but I think it’ll be Fournette putting the game away.
Tier II: Let’s Get Spicy!
Add Mike Evans Anytime TD to the base play
+1000 on PointsBet
The Buccaneers are getting weapons back this week with Chris Godwin and Cameron Brate likely returning, so Mike Evans has some guys to share the ball with. That said, when the Bucs are in the red zone, and I think they’ll be there a fair amount, it’s Mike Evans who catches Tom Brady’s eye. Touchdown scorers are never guarantees, which is why this juices up the price, but I feel real good about Evans finding the endzone.
Tier III: Give Me The Heat!
Change Steelers Total to Under 14.5
Add Tom Brady Over 1.5 TDs
Add Kenny Pickett Over 250 Yards
+4000 on PointsBet
We’re just doubling down on the narrative here and taking a big odds flier. If the game goes the way I am anticipating we should see Kenny Pickett with a high yardage total, and Tom Brady may have two TDs in the first quarter alone. If you add those and cut the Steelers point total down to under 14.5 and you have a +4000 parlay that may actually be realistic here.