It wasn’t pretty, but we’re onto Week 3.
Not only was it not pretty, but it was downright sweaty through three-and-a-half quarters watching the Denver Broncos try and survive the Houston Texans.
We got some help around the league in Week 2 as well, with the New York Jets – more on them later – upsetting the Cleveland Browns, Cooper Rush’s Dallas Cowboys walking off the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Arizona Cardinals pulling off a miraculous comeback against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Depending on your pool, we could be down to as little as 30% of the initial field remaining. In the Circa Survivor contest, 67% of entries have been eliminated through two weeks – an almost unbelievable figure this early in the season.
But let’s not dwell on the past. It’s been an ugly two weeks we’ve been grateful to survive, but it’s about to get a whole lot uglier in Week 3.
I’m going to take a different approach to this week’s column given the uncertainty, as we’ll attempt to use this week to separate ourselves from the rest of the pack after using the most-selected team in each of the first two weeks.
Honestly, no part of me expected the Broncos to be the most popular pick in Week 2. Given how bad the team looked in Week 1, combined with an impressive display from the Texans, I thought the Broncos would be outside the top three considering the other options available. Alas, what’s done is done, and we’re still in a great spot right now with 67% of the field gone. We also never have to pick Nathaniel Hackett’s team again, which is a considerable plus.
Week 3 minefield
According to the best available odds at betstamp, the highest Week 3 win probability is owned by the Los Angeles Chargers, with a -300 moneyline price equating to a 75% win probability. They’re followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (-256, 72%) and the Philadelphia Eagles (-250, 71%).
Based on everything we’ve seen through the first couple of weeks, we can also assume these will be the most-picked teams. The Chargers and Chiefs had an extra few days to prepare for this week’s games, while the Eagles are quickly becoming everyone’s favorite pick to win the NFC. The Chargers are certainly a team to tread lightly on with injuries piling up ahead of a date with a Jacksonville Jaguars team that looks quite competent under Doug Pederson. The Chiefs and Eagles are on the road against the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders, respectively, and while they offer a certain degree of comfort – still not quite to the degree you’d want from a survivor pick, though – that’s hard to find in Week 3, they’re also easy fades given their likely popularity and significant future value.
Let's pivot.
Well, as of Tuesday morning I was feeling good about locking in the Cleveland Browns. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team worth fading going forward, and this presented a good buy-low on the Browns after a stunning loss to the Jets - an entirely misleading result. I was able to live with Jadeveon Clowney and Chase Winovich being ruled out, given the state of this Steelers offensive line, and offense in general, but then Myles Garrett was put on the injury report. With his status legitimately in question, I just can’t stomach the Browns here.
So we pivot, again.
How about those Minnesota Vikings? They offer another solid buy-low after being completely overmatched on Monday night against the Eagles. I’m still relatively high on this team, and will continue to fade – however stubbornly – the Detroit Lions, who are almost certainly better on offense than I gave them credit for, but are somehow even worse on defense than I anticipated. At home, I expect the Vikings to roll on offense, while getting enough pressure on Jared Goff on defense to slow the Lions’ attack. I do feel comfortable here with the Vikings, despite last season’s struggles against Detroit. This is a different team, with a different coach, and this is a solid spot to back Kevin O’Connell’s group.
That being said, it’s not enough of a smash spot to ignore the fact that the Vikings offer considerable future value. With home games still to come against the Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots – a Thanksgiving Day game, offering extra value in Circa Survivor – New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, and New York Giants, we will leave the Vikings alone here in Week 3.
Pivot. Pivot. Pivoooooooooot.
I also considered the Atlanta Falcons as crazy as that sounds, and still don’t hate the look if you’re feeling extra frisky this week. I’m higher on this team than the market and couldn’t be much lower on the Seattle Seahawks. Yet something about taking a road underdog this early in the contest just isn’t sitting well with me. The truth is we don’t know enough about these two teams yet to take such a calculated risk. We’ll know a lot more by Week 11, when the Falcons play host to the Bears. The same is true of Week 13, when they host the Steelers.
I didn’t hate the Houston Texans, either, visiting the Chicago Bears. Unlike Atlanta, this is probably your only chance to pick Houston. This is a frisky team with just enough weapons on offense to compliment a very underrated defense, that makes the Texans live this week in Chicago. Still a pass for me, though, as we need to wait and see if we’re lower than we should be on the Bears.
The third and final Week 3 toss-up between a pair of potentially bad – almost certainly, in fact – teams sees the Las Vegas Raiders visit the Tennessee Titans. Hard pass on either side.
What’s left?
Like your local avoids your calls after a big week, I’m completely ignoring a pair of short divisional road favorites in the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams. I also have no interest in burning any good teams in virtual coin-flips, which rules out the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and San Francisco 49ers. We’ve also already picked the Baltimore Ravens, so let’s waste no time discussing their trip to Foxboro.
If you’ve been keeping track – or, let’s be honest, if simply you read the article’s title or saw it’s accompanying picture – you know who that leaves us with.
The pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Now I’m not going to sit here and type 2,000 words on why the Bengals will beat the Jets this week. That would be a waste of time for both of us, not to mention irresponsible.
Can the Bengals lose to the Jets to fall to 0-3? Absolutely.
The best I can do is provide a few reasons why I’m comfortable settling here in Week 3, and let you make up your own mind from there, based on everything I’ve discussed in this column.
First off, how many options do we have to pick the Bengals after this week? Not many. The schedule isn’t exactly tough, but there’s hardly a smash spot. Week 7 and Week 9 are likely your only other chances, but we’ll have a multitude of other options those weeks, and I am really eager to fade the Jets after last week’s horribly misleading win over the Browns.
We’re also benefitting from the fact that Bengals ownership will likely be low here following their 0-2 start – both losses coming as touchdown favorites. New York’s win in Cleveland helps us here as well.
So why am I dying to fade the Jets? Well, for starters this is still a bad football team that was a Nick Chubb mental mistake away from being 0-2 with a minus-22 point differential. The Jets have done most of their damage with defenses playing soft coverage, scoring 20 of their 40 points through two weeks in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter.
Of their 402 yards of offense against the Browns, 128 of them came in an absurd final two minutes, while 180 of their 380 yards against the Ravens came after they went behind 24-3 late in the third quarter. Despite all that help they still rank middle of the pack on offense in EPA/play and yards/play.
To be fair, Cincinnati would kill for those numbers on offense right now. It hasn’t been pretty by any standards for Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense through two weeks. I won’t sugar coat it. The offensive line hasn’t held up as hoped, and Burrow is doing it no favors by holding the ball as long as he is.
That being said, this is a significant step down in class for the Cincinnati offense. In Week 1 they were up against a stout Steelers defense – with T.J. Watt healthy – and in Week 2 it didn’t get much easier against a strong Cowboys group. Hopefully a date with a weak Jets unit – one that ranks 31st in EPA/play – will be the remedy the Bengals offense needs to get right.
The Jets also rank 30th in pass rush win rate, while the Cowboys and Steelers (pre-Watt injury) are both top 10 in that regard. That will help alleviate the pressure on Burrow and the offensive line, affording him the time he needs to spread the ball around to this excellent wide receiver group and torch this Jets secondary.
On the other side of the ball, this is a step up in class for Joe Flacco against a Bengals defense that ranks seventh in pass rush win rate and eighth in EPA/play. The Ravens rank 26th in EPA/play on defense through two weeks, and the Browns 28th. Look for D.J. Reader, Trey Hendrickson, and this Cincinnati front to be in Flacco’s grill all afternoon, helping the Bengals to their first win of the season.
God I hope so.