Super Bowl post-Week 3 odds update: Chargers free-falling after catastrophic loss

The favorites 

The three teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds heading into Week 3 – the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – all lost on Sunday, narrowing the gap between them and the second tier of teams, while welcoming two new ones into the elite class – the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers.

The five teams listed above are in a tier of their own atop the oddsboard, followed by a muddled tier of teams from 14-1 to 22-1, which offers some limited value. The Miami Dolphins (23-1 to 16-1) and Los Angeles Chargers (15-1 to 20-1) are the biggest Week 3 movers among this tier, while the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, and Cincinnati Bengals also saw their odds shorten following victories. 

Chargers’ catastrophe

The most notable move from this group is that of the Chargers, who looked like a perfect buy-low candidate as of Monday morning. It’s hard to put much stock into the Chargers’ Week 3 loss considering the wealth of injuries they were dealing with, and thus a move from 15-1 to 20-1 seemed a considerable overreaction. This is the same Chargers team that could have easily left Arrowhead with a win in Week 2 with some better play-calling and turnover luck in the second half. There’s a case to be made for them as a top-five group in the NFL when healthy – but therein lies the issue.

Healthy is rarely a term used to describe the Chargers, and we saw the devastating impact their long list of injuries had in Week 3. Justin Herbert took an injection to play through a painful rib injury, while wide receiver Keenan Allen (hamstring), center Corey Linsley (knee), and cornerback J.C. Jackson (ankle) all missed the game. All these guys will be back sooner than later, so 20-1 was still shaping up to be a strong buy point on the Chargers – until disaster struck.

Left tackle Rashawn Slater left Sunday’s loss with an arm injury, and the worst-case scenario was confirmed today by NFL Network insider Tom Pelissero, who reported Slater will miss the rest of the season with a torn left biceps tendon. It’s hard to quantify the impact of non-quarterback injuries in these markets, but the significance of this cannot be understated. There are few non-quarterbacks in the league more important to their team than All-Pro tackle Slater, especially when considering the drop-off to his backups. Depth is sorely lacking on the Chargers’ offensive line, and they must now turn to Trey Pipkins and Storm Norton to protect Herbert and his fractured rib cartilage. 

The market has yet to react to this news – and likely won’t – with the Chargers still stagnant at 20-1 at Fanduel. There’s currently no value on them at this price, which doesn’t properly account for the impact of Slater’s absence. To compound matters, Joey Bosa left Sunday’s loss with a groin injury and is still undergoing tests to determine the extent of it, while Jalen Guyton suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season. The Chargers’ Week 3 loss is proving catastrophic to the team’s Super Bowl hopes. 

Jags climbing

The biggest overall mover following Sunday’s games were the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose odds were nearly slashed in half from 90-1 to 55-1 after a comprehensive 38-10 win in L.A. over the Chargers. With the AFC South title well within reach for the Jaguars, this is still an attractive price on a team that could be hosting a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend. A bet on the Jaguars to win the division also warrants a look at current market price (around +250). However, with the Jaguars playing in Philadelphia in Week 4, a bet on them in either of these markets can likely wait another week.  

The fallers

Further down the oddsboard, the New Orleans Saints (37-1 to 55-1), Arizona Cardinals (50-1 to 65-1), Las Vegas Raiders (60-1 to 75-1) - more on the Raiders from Fabian Sommer here - and New England Patriots (50-1 to 75-1) all saw their odds considerably lengthen following Week 3 losses, with the Saints and Patriots also dealing with injuries to the quarterback position. Jameis Winston is playing through a significant back injury, and wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jamison Crowder both left Sunday’s loss to the Carolina Panthers injured, while Patriots quarterback Mac Jones suffered a “pretty severe” high ankle sprain, and while the timeline is still TBD, he will likely be sidelined for a while.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (85-1 to 130-1) and Washington Commanders (85-1 to 130-1) are also considerable fallers, each looking like bottom-five teams in the league. The Steelers could be an interesting buy low at 1-2 if you believe a quarterback change is coming. There’s little standing in the way of rookie Kenny Pickett, with Mitch Trubisky a disaster under center. It’s just up to Mike Tomlin to make the change, and with a long week to prepare for Week 4 after playing Thursday night, it could be coming soon. That being said, the Steelers’ offensive line issues aren’t going anywhere, and are a good recipe to get their rookie quarterback killed under center.

Updated Super Bowl odds

*Odds courtesy of Fanduel